“Quitter l’euro n’est plus impensable”

“Quitter l’euro n’est plus impensable”

Le Times de Londres présente ce l’intervention spectaculaire de la chancelière allemande Angela Merkel dans la crise de l’euro, qui est la phase courante de la crise du système financier globale. Merkel estime que l’euro et l’Europe affrontent conjointement une crise existentielle.

«Angela Merkel stunned EU capitals by warning that the euro was in danger and triggered fears of a fresh financial meltdown by announcing a ban on risky trading practices by speculators. The German Chancellor’s actions opened up new cracks in the single currency, drawing sharp criticism from France and prompting Brussels to issue an appeal for unity. […]

»Ms Merkel believes that the EU should have stronger powers to organise the “orderly insolvency” of countries such as Greece that set giveaway budgets with no means of paying for them. After announcing a ban on speculative share trading in Germany’s top financial institutions and the bonds of eurozone countries until next March, she warned: “This challenge is existential and we have to rise to it. The euro is in danger. If we don’t deal with this danger, then the consequences for us in Europe are incalculable . . . If the euro fails, then Europe fails.” […]

»Wolfgang Schäuble, the German Finance Minister, called for an urgent rewriting of the eurozone rulebook. He told the Financial Times: “I’m convinced the markets are really out of control. That is why we need really effective regulation, in the sense of creating a properly functioning market mechanism.”»

Dans la même édition du Times, également ce 20 mai 2010, Bronwen Maddox présente dans sa rubrique World Briefing ce qu’elle juge désormais comme possible : “Quitter l’euro n’est désormais plus impensable” («Quitting the euro club is no longer unthinkable»). Elle détaille les possibilités de décisions politiques à ce égard, autant que les énormes problèmes que soulèverait pour un pays une décision de quitter l’euro.

«When the head of the German government stands up and warns that the survival of the euro is in danger, you know that Europe’s attempt at a single currency is in real trouble. But Angela Merkel, in warning that the eurozone could come apart, has only said publicly what bankers and lawyers close to leading EU governments have been speculating about privately for weeks.

»The question is no longer whether a country could ever leave the euro, but which one might want to, and how it could pick a way through a financial and legal minefield to the exit.

»“Procedure is the only barrier,” said one London fund manager, “and with the amount of thought now going into that, the barrier will fall.” A US lawyer specialising in Europe said: “It would be hugely messy. Lawsuits could go on for ever, from people who suddenly found their euro loans denominated in something else. How you work out which court to sue in would be a nightmare. But mess wouldn’t be an insuperable barrier if a country really wanted out.”

»Which countries might? Greece and Portugal head one list, on grounds of weakness. Germany, painfully, given its role in creating the euro, heads another, on grounds of strength. None says it wants to leave — indeed, their leaders say the opposite. The question is whether their economic or political situation forces a change of mind.»

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