Ahmadinejad au Liban, vu par Juan Cole

Ahmadinejad au Liban, vu par Juan Cole

Le meilleur spécialiste indépendant US des questions de l'Islam et du Moyen-Orient, notamment de l’Irak et de l’Iran, est sans aucun doute le professeur Juan Cole, professeur d'histoire à l'université du Michigan. Il est fameux pour ses commentaires suivis sur son site Informed Comment. Dans ce texte du 12 octobre 2010 pour Truthdig.org, Cole analyse la position de l’Iran, son influence, sa capacité d’action, à l’occasion du voyage d’Ahmadinejad au Liban. Son commentaire concerne évidemment la position de l’Iran par rapport au Liban, mais il s’agit surtout de mettre en évidence combien les USA et Israël ont une capacité limitée de contenir l’influence de ce pays, et combien la crise du nucléaire et les sanctions contre l’Iran ont peu d’effets sur cette influence.

«…Ahmadinejad is a major thorn in the side of U.S. President Barack Obama and Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu. Iran rejects the legitimacy of Israel, one of the pillars of American policy in the Middle East (though Ahmadinejad has never actually threatened to wipe Israel off the face of the map, a charge based on a mistranslation). Iran supports nativist paramilitaries such as that of Hezbollah in Lebanon, Hamas in Gaza and the Badr Corps in Iraq. Most seriously, Iran is pursuing the enrichment of uranium, which it says is for civilian power generation. The U.S. and Israel, however, fear the program could end up being dual-use and result in, at the least, the ability to assemble a nuclear warhead on short notice.

»Iran, despite draconian U.N. and U.S. sanctions, remains a major player in the region. Shiite Iran has just rallied the Shiite religious parties in Iraq to support its favored candidate for prime minister, Nouri al-Maliki of the Islamic Mission Party. Syria and Turkey have warm relations with the Ahmadinejad government. Even Egypt has just announced a resumption of direct flights between Cairo and Tehran. […]

»Iran’s ability to thumb its nose at the U.S., Israel and Western Europe is rooted in its vast petroleum and natural gas reserves. After a difficult 2009 because of the world economic crisis, oil prices are up 15 percent in 2010 on Asian demand. The long-term impact of the new U.N. sanctions approved June 9 is questionable. South Korea has just found a way to sidestep the effect of the sanctions on its exports to the Islamic Republic. China has paid virtually no attention to the U.S. sanctions though it has slightly reduced its dependence on Iranian petroleum over the past year. Turkey, which, like South Korea, does $10 billion a year in commerce with Iran, is openly defiant of the U.N. and U.S. sanctions, and intends to triple its foreign trade with the Islamic Republic over the next five years. Turkey has successfully negotiated a free trade zone with Lebanon, and is seeking to expand it to Jordan and Syria, and Iran will likely benefit from this European Union-like Middle Eastern trade bloc as well.

»The first visit of a president of the Islamic Republic to Beirut signals that neither the U.S. nor Israel is hegemonic in the region, and that Iran is willing to brave even a Spartan existence under sanctions for the sake of its independence and its projection of influence in the Middle East. Right wing Christian critics of Ahmadinejad’s trip charge Tehran with attempting to signal that Iranian territory extends into southern Lebanon. But many long-suffering southern Lebanese hope Ahmadinejad will show Israel the new limits of its power.»

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