Conseil à Poutine : rallier l’Iran contre le bloc BAO

Conseil à Poutine : rallier l’Iran contre le bloc BAO

Voici un commentaire fort intéressant de MK Bhadrakumar, du 20 juillet 2014 (sur Indian PunchLine). Nous nous distançons de certaines des appréciations du commentateurs, notamment sur la politique US depuis 2009 telle qu'il l’analyse, parce que c’est bien trop charger de sens ce qui n’est qu’une non-politique, ou politique-Système, déchaînée par la seule pression du Système. Le déchaînement, – pas d’autre mot possible, – auquel nous assistons aujourd’hui est évidemment de l’ordre d’une mécanique, ou bien d’une tectonique de forces absolument hors du contrôle humain, quelles que soient les projets, desseins et plans de l’humain en question. L’intérêt de ce texte, selon nous, est sur l’autre face du sujet, et bien entendu la plus enrichissante et la plus centrale, c’est-à-dire la Russie, son orientation fondamentale et ses relations avec l’Iran dans le déchaînement actuel.

Bhadrakumar évoque comme une possibilité fondamentale un rapprochement de la Russie avec l’Iran, rapprochement qu’il juge possible selon l’état d’esprit actuel de l’Iran, concrétisé par une communication du président iranien Rouhani à Poutine le 19 juillet. Bhadrakumar juge que si la Russie se rapproche décisivement de l’Iran dans l’actuelle négociation sur le nucléaire iranien, elle peut acquérir, ou retrouver si l’on tient compte de l’évolution de la crise ukrainienne, une place prépondérante face au bloc BAO qui espère contraindre l’Iran à un marché selon ses termes. C’est alors que la logique du commentateur indien, s’adressant directement à la Russie, devient véritablement très intéressante, – sonnant comme une exhortation à abandonner les “rêves” d’occidentalisation qu’entretiennent les gens du “parti occidentaliste” à Moscou, et que Poutine lui-même n’a jamais tout à fait repoussé, – pour s’engager réellement et sans frein, en ralliant l’Iran dans une alliance supplémentaire, dans l’affrontement inévitable contre le bloc BAO.

«To be sure, Moscow has lost the propaganda war to Washington. It harks back to the Cold War era. The US was always miles ahead of the former Soviet Union in catching the worm — be it during the Cuban missile crisis, Afghanistan or Boris Pasternak’s Dr. Zhivago.

»To my mind, Russia is at fault here. This is what happens to a divided house. It has been quite apparent to any long-time observer that Moscow was being pulled in opposite directions by the so-called ‘westernists’ and ‘orientalists’, the latter on retreat. The Ukraine crisis ought to be a wake-up call. The point is, history has not ended and Russia can never be part of the Western world. It is too big and too different and too powerful and unmanageable. Russia’s presence in the European tent challenges the US’ trans-Atlantic leadership and questions the very raison d’etre of the NATO, and indeed Euro-Atlanticism as the leitmotif of the US global strategies ceases to be.

»It is about time the ‘westernists’ among the Moscow elites realize that all they have is a pipe dream. There is no precedent of the US ever having treated another country — including Britain — on an equal footing. Therefore, Russia’s destiny is dictated by the need to consolidate its standing as an independent global player. It has the capacity to do it, but, alas, often enough not the will and interest in discerning who is a potential ally and who is not. That makes the phone call that Iranian President Hassan Rouhani put through to Putin yesterday a many-splendored thing for a Russia watcher. Of course, Rouhani didn’t broach Ukraine. The surprise would have been if he had.

»To be sure, it is a poignant moment in Iran-Russia relations. The Kremlin had cooperated with the Obama administration in the spirit of the (in)famous US-Russia ‘reset’ to put the screws on Iran and isolate that country at a time when Tehran was having its back against the wall. Of course, that was a time when the ‘westernists’ in Moscow were ruling the roost and they were brimming with confidence that they were having a deal with Obama, chewing hotdog and washing ti down with coke. The whole world seemed to them a burger joint, in fact.

»The wheel has come full circle now. The reset turned out to be a macabre joke that the Obama administration played on the Kremlin folks. And the mother of all ironies is that Russia today is being threatened with an avalanche of sanctions by the US unless it behaved properly over Ukraine, much the same way Iran used to be threatened until last year.

»And, yet, Rouhani didn’t broach Ukraine with Putin. But he’d have left food for thought for Moscow. The point is, simply by being a sincere friend and strategic partner of Iran at this point in time when the US-Iran talks are finely poised, Moscow can turn the tables on Washington and hit back at the cold warriors in Washington where it hurts them most.

»Quite obviously, the US’ negotiating hand vis-a-vis Tehran is weakening. A return to ground zero (before the direct talks began) is not possible; a military strike against Iran is not feasible; if talks fail Tehran will resume the nuclear program full-throttle. In sum, Iran has breached the US’ ring of encirclement. That is the meaning of the extension of the July 20 deadline for the nuclear deal. Period... [...]

»The bottom line is that the Iranians will give the Americans a run for their money. There is no way that Tehran is going to give up on its massive assets running into hundreds of billions of dollars, which the US confiscated following the fall of the Shah; it was plain highway robbery. Nor could Iran have forgotten that the Americans deliberately shot down an Iranian civilian aircraft in 1988 – knowing fully well it was a civilian aircraft — killing 300 people on board.

»I first began dealing with Iran as a career diplomat in 1989 and I have been to that country so many times that I really lost count. If I know my Iran, I can tell this much: Rouhani reached out to Putin at a defining moment in contemporary world politics.»

Mis en ligne le 24 juillet 2014 à 08H42