Le Mexique vers la guerre (G4G) ?

Le Mexique vers la guerre (G4G) ?

Une analyse de Julian Cardona, de Reuters, du 23 juillet 2010 envisage que l’explosion d’une voiture piégée à Ciudad Juarez, le 15 juillet, peut constituer un tournant vers la transformation de l’affrontement gouvernement-cartels de la drogue en un véritable conflit. Bien entendu, il sera question d’une guerre type-G4G.

• «A deadly car bomb last week in this violent border city may mark a turning point in Mexico's bloody drug war as powerful smuggling cartels stage ever more bold and elaborate attacks. […]

»The explosion suggests the cartels, which have typically used assault rifles and grenades to knock off rivals and go after police, are ready to use more elaborate tactics that may drag more ordinary Mexicans into the bloodshed. “It's like an arms race,” said Alberto Islas, a security analyst with Risk Evaluation in Mexico City. “Beheading people is no longer enough ... Organized crime is going to keep escalating.”»

• Après avoir évoqué l’analogie de la Colombie, l’analyse se poursuit de cette façon, en signalant les réactions du côté US (Ciudad Juarez est sur la frontière mexicaine des USA) :

«Others have suggested parallels with the improvised bombs that insurgents concoct in Iraq and Afghanistan. “It's a loud knock at our door,” a U.S. law enforcement source said on condition of anonymity, suggesting a rash of similar attacks could be crippling for Mexico, which sends about 80 percent of its exports to the United States.

»“Can you imagine if a device like that blew up (near a border crossing)? It would shut down the port, the commerce.”

»The U.S. source said the remotely detonated explosive weighed at least 20 pounds (9 kg) and was made of commercial mining explosives enhanced for greater casualties…»

• …Bref, un événement très sérieux, y compris lorsqu’il est considéré selon un arrière-plan économique. Les perspectives sont donc très pessimistes.

«Conservative estimates put annual revenues from Mexico's highly organized, savvy smuggling rackets at between $25 billion (16.2 billion pounds) and $40 billion, more than the country's 2009 oil export earnings.

»One former police official in Ciudad Juarez sees a clear business motive behind the growing violence. “When you have a business, when do you invest in it? When you see conditions that are going to allow it to make money,” he said.

»The car bomb attack is bad news for Calderon. Struggling to turn Latin America's second biggest economy around after a crippling recession in 2009, the drug war has hurt his image and weakened his conservative National Action Party, which now faces an uphill battle as it seeks to hold on to the presidency in 2012 elections. […]

»Still, the threat is real in Ciudad Juarez, where graffiti scrawled across a wall this week issues a clear threat: “If in 15 days we don't see those corrupt federal police arrested, we are going to fill a car with 100 kilos of C-4 (explosive).”»

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