Le mois de juin sera-t-il chaud ?

Le mois de juin sera-t-il chaud ?

Ci-dessous, deux commentaires du rédacteur-en-chef Abdel Bari Atwan, du journal arabe édité en Angleterre Al-Quds Al-Arabi. A trois jours de distance, le chroniqueur annonce que le mois de juin sera crucial au Moyen-Orient, avec une attaque contre la Syrie ou/et une attaque contre l’Iran, ou peut-être les deux à la fois, par une coalition rassemblée par les USA, par le secrétaire d’Etatt Kerry lors de sa dernière tournée.

• Le premier commentaire est du 12 avril 2013 : «We were not surprised to read Israeli website claims that US Secretary of State John Kerry’s marathon tour of the Middle East was simply aimed at forming an alliance against Iran. Such an axis would help to impose sanctions against Tehran, halting its nuclear programme and prompting the possibility of a military confrontation in the future, the website said.

»Past US behaviour does not rule this out. Each time a US official talks about reviving the peace process between the Israelis and the Palestinians, the US sends its armies and B52 bombers to ravage and occupy another Middle Eastern country. […]

»The countdown has begun on an US-Israeli attack on Iran to destroy its nuclear ambitions, following the latest round of failed talks. Some say such an attack could be imminent – as soon as next June. There are several indicators which suggest this could be a possibility.

»Firstly, Obama has visited Tel Aviv recently, renewing his commitment to block Iran from becoming a nuclear power. The recent Israeli-Turkish reconciliation, overseen by the US president, forced Netanyahu to apologise to Erdogan over the Mavi Marmara flotilla incident. Thirdly, US Defence Secretary Chuck Hagel has visited Jerusalem to revive military cooperation between Israel and Turkey. Finally, repeated statements by Iranian officials – among them Ali Khamenei – have warned that Iran will retaliate if Israel attacks its nuclear reactors….»

• Deuxième commentaire, le 15 avril 2013 : «Sources close to Arab and Gulf decision-makers suggest that serious – maybe even critical – developments in Syria, are likely in June. While there are no specific details as yet, several indicators give credibility to the chatter.

»First of all, British army scientists have found evidence of chemical weapons used during the two-year Syrian conflict. The Ministry of Defence says that soil samples taken near Damascus have proven the use of chemical weapons, although nobody has directly implicated either the regime or the opposition. […]

»Next, the moratorium on the European Union’s decision to impose an arms embargo on the Syrian opposition will end early on in June, paving the way for free and independent action from both Britain and France. They could well provide the opposition with modern arms and equipment, including heavy armour and anti-aircraft missiles. […]

»British Defence Ministry leaks about soil samples taken from Damascus must come as part of some bigger plan. It is reminiscent of another incident when British intelligence officials sent British-Iranian journalist Farzat Bazoft to Baghdad to take soil samples near chemical plants. A British laboratory supposedly found traces of weapons of mass destruction (WMDs) close by. This helped justify the US-British invasion of Iraq. […]

»What we are about to witness is a repeat of events used to justify economic sanctions on Iraq – and then invasion – after a chemical weapons attacked killed 5,000 civilians in the Kurdish town of Halabja. The West blamed Iraq for the tragedy. The question remains: Is future military action, which could mean no-fly zones or arming the opposition, designed to lure Iran into the conflict; or will it come in the form of a joint US, Israeli and Arab war on Iran and Syria at the same time?

»Israeli reports warn that Iran could become a nuclear state before the end of the year. This means that US and Israel have just a few months to halt a dangerous and strategic shift in the region. What changes things in this case – and could turn everything upside down – is that when Saddam Hussein’s regime faced blockade and war, he was alone and without allies. Under Gorbachev, Russia was bankrupt and China was preoccupied with its own economic development. oday, the Assad regime has the support of Russia, Iran, Hezbollah in Lebanon and the BRICS countries (Brazil, China, India and South Africa).

»June is one of our hottest months. It’s ironic that it begins 40 days before the holy month of Ramadan this year. I wouldn’t be surprised, and can’t rule it out, if this June becomes one of the most incendiary months in the history of the Arabs.

Un point intéressant à mentionner est que notre commentateur-diplomate MK Bhadrakumar a lui aussi noté (le 16 avril 2013, sur Indian PunchLine, son blog) les écrits de Abdel Bari Atwan, qu’il considère comme l’un des journalistes arabes très bien informés des affaires du Moyen-Orient. MK Bhadrakumar ajoute nombre d’autres arguments et références en faveur de la thèse avancée, concernant spécifiquement l’attaque de la Syrie. Il accorde une particulière importance aux trouvailles des Britanniques qui constituent, semble-t-il, un excellent matériel pour fabriquer une belle narrative, comme on l’avait fait avant l’attaque de l’Irak. Il y ajoute quelques détails sur la rencontre entre Obama et le secrétaire général de l’ONU, excellent serviteur du président à cet égard, – parfaitement appropriées et tout à fait conformes aux démarches courantes dans ce cas, y compris pour la préparation d’une éventuelle attaque en Syrie («Ban Ki-Moon took instructions from Obama and is trying to find a way to open a UN file on Bashar Al-Assad’s WMD. Why the big hoax? Shades of Iraq!»).

«…Meanwhile, Moscow forewarns that it will oppose any fresh western resolution on Syria in the UN Security Council. So, if Atwan is right, Nasr is genuinely influential, and BBC is truly state-owned, Obama will have to take the call to bypass the UN and invade Syria.

»That, of course, will do lethal damage to the Obama legacy – although it may not necessarily lead to the recall of his Nobel. Therefore, let us wait till the Simoom, the hot dusty poison winds of June blowing from the Sahara, which scour the plains of Syria whisking the chaff from the wheat harvest — so that the grains become easy to separate.

»Having said that, one thing I can tell for sure — US won’t invade Syria till June 19. How do I know? Well, the G-8 summit is scheduled to be held in Northern Ireland on June 18-19 and Obama just invited Putin for a meeting on the sidelines. Obama is a smart politician with an ambitious agenda on disarmament, which he sees as one of the foreign-policy legacies of his presidency. Remember his famous 2009 speech in Prague on disarmament? Well, Obama needs Putin to hold his hand, and he can’t afford Bashar to come in between.»

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