Les Américains ne se rendent pas compte de ce qui est en train d’arriver à leur dollar

C’est l’automne du gouffre sombre pour le dollar, mais la chose n’a pas vraiment l’air de préoccuper Washington, ses augures et ses stratèges. Comme le reste, comme la guerre, comme la puissance sans fin des USA, les américanistes vivent comme si rien ne devait jamais changer. C’est de ce point de vue que Hamish McRae aborde la question du dollar, dans The Independent du 14 novembre. Il explique ainsi ce qui lui paraît être le fond du problème psychologique:

«I don't think Americans get it. I don't think they realise quite how serious the collapse of the dollar is for the global economy, nor the long-term consequences of this decline for the position of the US in the world. Sure, they grumble about prices in London and find it odd that US lawyers want to be transferred to the UK because they can earn more money here. But at a fundamental level, to judge by the conversations I have had in recent weeks, I don't think the US financial community appreciates quite what peril it is in.»

McRae analyse la situation du dollar et dénombre six raisons pour lesquelles la crise lui semble bien plus grave que celles qui ont précédé. La première est celle de la comptabilité, les valeurs respectives des monnaies mettant le dollar dans une position vraiment très délicate. Mais les autres sont plus sophistiquées, plus nouvelles, plus liées à la psychologie et à la perception. La seconde est celle de la perception qu’on a de la valeur et de la capacité des banquiers US: «Now those US bankers don't look so smart and more than one non-US investor has indicated to me they felt they have been stuffed with rubbish. They won't trust those bankers again.» La troisième concerne également la valeur, l’excellence américaniste qui semble n’être plus qu’un souvenir, – également problème de perception, mais appuyé sur tant de faits: «The problem is not just the dollar; it is the integrity of US financial institutions. The pitch that the US has more transparent and more resilient markets than other countries is no longer credible.»

Les trois dernières raisons qui font de la situation actuelle une très grave affaire concernent des situations nouvelles. Là aussi, des facteurs psychologiques entrent en ligne de compte, aussi bien causés par l’attitude des USA que par l’évolution de la situation dans le reste du monde, toujours selon ce constat de la perte de la position incontestable jusqu’alors de la supériorité US.

«The fourth element is that there are other places to invest. I was at a Middle East fund management conference last month and everyone wanted to talk about opportunities in Asia. This year, for the first time ever, China is adding more demand to the world economy than the US. It is still a smaller economy and will be for another 20 years at least. But the direction is clear, with China set to pass Germany to become the world's third largest economy some time next year. India is also extremely attractive to Middle Eastern investors, thanks in part to the physical proximity of the sub-continent and the cultural links between the two regions. Anyone who invested in India five years ago will have done wonderfully well, far better than they would have done had they invested in the US.

»Connected with this, point five, is the deterioration in the cultural relationship between the US and the rest of the world in the past few years. The US no longer appears quite the safe haven for investments that it used to, for a variety of reasons. One has been resistance in Congress to foreign takeovers. Another has been the change in visa requirements – why invest in the US if it is awkward to visit your investment? Can you really trust the US legal system to be dispassionate in a dispute between a foreigner and a national? At a low enough price, US assets will still be attractive, but they do carry a handicap and will continue to do so.

»Finally, and this is perhaps the most important thing, there are now alternatives to the dollar. There is the euro, of course, and foreign central banks are building up their reserves in euros. The pound is now being held much more widely in central banks too. Most important, there are a basket of other currencies, including the Chinese yuan, which international investors feel they should hold. A decade or more ago, the options were much narrower.»

La conclusion de McRae est d’une certaine façon paradoxale, mais confirme le reste de son analyse. Effectivement, on pourrait décider de venir en aide au dollar pour le renflouer mais cet acte serait justement la démonstration décisive que le dollar a perdu sa prépondérance.

«There may need to be, however, an international rescue of the dollar. The world's central banks, including, crucially, the Bank of China, would come together and agree a package of measures to support it.

»Were that to happen, it would be a mark of the way economic power is shifting in the world. It is slowly and inexorably shifting away from the US and that will, to many Americans, come as a shock.»

Mis en ligne le 15 novembre 2007 à 17H59