Alors, vraiment finie la crise ?

Qui se souvient encore qu’il y a une semaine, le monde tremblait sur ses bases en observant la crise financière? Le monde est revenu à ses autres crises. Lawrence Summer, l’ancien secrétaire au trésor de l’administration Clinton, pense que le pire est encore à venir : une récession aux USA. C’est ce que rapporte le Daily Telegraph de ce jour

«Former US Treasury Secretary Larry Summers warned that the United States may be heading into recession as the biggest victim to date of the sub-prime mortgage debacle was humiliatingly sold for a token sum in Germany.

»Traders are braced for another week of turmoil after the near breakdown of America's $2,200bn (£1,100bn) market for commercial paper.

»“It would be far too premature to judge this crisis over,” Mr Summers said. “I would say the risks of recession are now greater than they've been any time since the period in the aftermath of 9/11.”»

Cet avertissement nous renvoie à une analyse de Ambrose Evans-Pritchard, du même Daily Telegraph le 23 août. Evans-Pritchard s’étonne de la façon dont les conditions de la crise sont oubliées un peu partout. Il rappelle les conditions très particulières qu’a connues le monde financier le jour où la Federal Bank a dù intervenir de toute urgence, le 20 août.

»So no, the world has changed, dramatically. Whether this means a protracted global downturn and a “profits recession” depends on how quickly the central banks choose to respond, and how far they are willing to go.

»Ben Bernanke is looking hawkish to me, given the shock of what happened on Monday when yields on 3-month US Treasury notes plunged at the fastest pace ever recorded, a panic flight to safety that no living trader had ever seen before.

»Why? Because trust had collapsed to such a degree that players with a lot of cash no longer believed it safe to leave wealth in bank accounts, or the money market funds of brokerage companies — (exposed as they are to short-term commercial paper and subprime CDOs). This did not occur after 9/11, or in the heat of the October 1987 crash. Nor did was there such a banking panic in October 1929. (it hit in August 1931). If you think this is of no importance, or that this will pass swiftly, you have a strong nerve.

» “When you have a run on the money markets like this, it is bound to spill over into the real economy,” said Albert Edwards, global strategist at Dresdner Kleinwort.

» “We already thought there was a 40pc chance of a US recession before all this happened, but the risks are now much higher and don’t forget that rates on adjustable mortgages will keep rising until a peak next March, so the maximum pain will be in the second and third quarters of 2008,” he said.

»“There will be large bankruptcies, and liquidity is not going to help because too many people bet the farm at the top of the cycle, and they’re now insolvent. A lot more bodies are going to be floating to the surface before this is over,” he said.»

La référence de Evans-Pritchard à l’effondrement de la confiance (retrait d’argent liquide des banques) est particulièrement impressionnante. Elle marque un événement psychologique sans précédent dans l’histoire financière, même en octobre 1929, — sauf en août 1931 qui est le début de la vraie Grande Dépression aux USA, caractérisée notamment par une impressionnate succession de faillites bancaires dues à ces retraits. Ce facteur psychologique est évidemment essentiel pour envisager une prévision sur l’évolution de la situation financière du monde.

Mis en ligne le 27 août 2007 à 15H25