Après l’Iran, Israël ?

Après l’Iran, Israël ?

Il y a un intéressant article de commentaire sur le rôle de la Turquie dans l’accord de Téhéran, de Semih Idiz, sur Hurriyet.DailyNews.com, le 17 mai 2010. L’article décrit :

• Le rôle proéminent de la Turquie, depuis plusieurs mois, pour arriver à un accord avec Téhéran. Dans les derniers jours avant l’accord, les Turcs étaient effectivement pessimistes sur son issue, et ne voyaient plus de possibilité, en cas d’échec, de continuer à s’opposer à des sanctions.

• Le premier ministre turc Erdogan s’est montré à plus d’une reprise agacé par les louvoiements des Iraniens, qui correspondent sans doute à des luttes internes. Erdogan n’a pas non plus vraiment apprécié, initialement, la mise en avant de Lula, alors que la Turquie avait fait l’essentiel du travail.

• Mais, finalement, les Iraniens ont accepté l’accord et tout cela, pessimisme et agacement, ont disparu. Désormais, les Turcs appuient de tout leur poids l’accord, affirment que l’Iran n’aura pas et ne doit pas avoir d’arme nucléaire, mais que cela doit être compris dans le cadre d’une zone dénucléarisée. Ce qui fait que toute la puissance de la Turquie va se porter contre Israël, pour réclamer la dénucléarisation de l’Etat juif.

Ci-dessous, le passage concernant ce dernier aspect en plus d’appréciations sur la position de la Turquie :

«While Brazil’s efforts are important and much appreciated in Ankara, it is evident that Turkey’s importance for Iran holds a separate place for a host of objective reasons, the most prominent being that Turkey is not just a predominantly Muslim country, but also a regional player whose role is ever increasing. It is also clear that the Iranian deal will add to this importance even further.

»Of course, there will be those in the West who insist that Iran still cannot be trusted and they will try to ratchet up the pressure on Tehran regardless of the deal arrived at. As for Israel, any deal with Iran, by its very nature, is bound to be disappointing, because the right-wingers who have gotten hold of that country have been itching to strike at Iran’s nuclear facilities.

»There is also another factor that Israel will have to consider now. Having been instrumental in working out a deal with Iran, it is unlikely that Prime Minister Erdogan will drop his criticism of Israel’s own nuclear program. To the contrary, it is likely that Ankara will make much more of this now that Iran has been brought into line, and will push harder for a nuclear-free Middle East.

»It seems, therefore, that while some will insist on keeping the pressure on Iran no matter what, the subject of pressuring Israel to come clean on its own nuclear program will mount relative to the extent that Tehran cooperates with the international community on its own nuclear program.

»But as matters stand today, and whatever the doubts may be that remain; it is clear that what we have here is a major diplomatic coup for Turkey, after months of efforts that appeared to be going nowhere. Turkey will also have been instrumental in bringing about a deal on a major international issue, which will not go unnoticed.

»The result is also an important success for Brazil, of course, and it is clear that Turkey will cooperate more with this country, and other countries like it, in the future in trying to solve apparently deadlocked international disputes.»

dedefensa.org