Après l’OEA, CAFTA : une nouvelle défaite interaméricaine pour Washington?

La situation de l’hégémonie des USA sur le reste des deux Amériques est de plus en plus préoccupante. Les Américains ont perdu le contrôle de l’Organisation des États Américains (OEA) lorsque leur candidat a été éliminé. Désormais, ils sont placés devant la possibilité, voire la probabilité d’un échec de leur proposition de zone de libre-échange de l’Amérique centrale (CAFTA). L’importance de la bataille pour CAFTA est mise en évidence par une rapide analyse de Michael A. Weinstein, dans sa rubrique “Intelligence Brief” du groupe PINR : « Failure to consummate C.A.F.T.A. would result in a loss of U.S. credibility, decreasing its influence in trade negotiations elsewhere and signaling that it cannot make good on its commitments. Already embroiled in disputes over immigration policy with Washington, Mexico City would be encouraged in its present southward turn, and the Central American states would be more open to economic and strategic penetration by other power centers, particularly the Brasilia-Caracas combine. »

Pour Washington, l’enjeu de CAFTA n’est pas seulement économique. Si l’arrangement ne se fait pas, c’est toute la position stratégique et politique de l’Amérique centrale, jusqu’au Mexique lui-même, qui est menacée. Il s’agirait alors d’une menace fondamentale de renversement d’axe géopolitique, du Nord et des USA, tournant vers le Sud et la fronde anti-américaine instrumentée par le Venezuela et le Brésil. On assisterait à la situation complètement paradoxale de voir les Etats-Unis isolés sur leur propre continent, avec d’éventuelles menaces sur leurs frontières terrestres.

CAFTA devrait être ratifié avant mardi prochain, mais cet objectif initial ne sera sans doute pas atteint. Voici quelques commentaires de Weinstein :

« Under pressure from publics threatened by economic competition from China, particularly in the textile sector, the administrations of the Central American states are counting on C.A.F.T.A. to stem job loss and bring in fresh investment, averting a recession that might bring them down and usher in left-populist governments. Strong left oppositions are waiting in the wings in El Salvador and Nicaragua, which has recently seen unruly street protests over economic concerns and which has been politically deadlocked by a confrontation between a left-right alliance of convenience in its parliament and President Enrique Bolanos.

» Washington's greatest hemispheric threat is that Central America will follow the pattern of much of South America and join a leftward turn that might take Mexico along with it. Yet C.A.F.T.A. is in trouble in the U.S. due to opposition to it by a varied coalition of interests, notably sugar growers, some segments of the textile sector, labor unions, environmentalists and human rights organizations. The coalition has made serious inroads in the U.S. Congress, where enough resistance to the trade pact has emerged on both the Democratic and Republican sides of the aisle to force the Bush administration to hold back on asking for a vote on ratification. According to the original time frame, U.S. ratification was to have been completed by May 31, but that deadline will not be met and no ratification vote has been scheduled.

» The Bush administration has become so concerned about the fate of C.A.F.T.A. that it mounted in the past two weeks a major public relations and lobbying effort in support of the treaty; this effort involved bringing all six presidents of the Latin American partners to the U.S. to try to sway congressional sentiment. In addition to Gutierrez, Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld, Agriculture Secretary Mike Johans and Deputy Secretary of State Robert Zoellick were mobilized to sell the benefits of C.A.F.T.A. to the constituencies of their departments. Due to other more highly visible issues — Iraq, Afghanistan and judicial appointments — the lobbying blitz occurred beneath the major media's radar screen and ended without substantially improving the chances for C.A.F.T.A.'s ratification. »

Mis en ligne le 26 mai 2005 à 07H40