Attention, Obrador n’est pas tout seul

A côté de l’analyse publiée ce même jour sur l’ambiguïté de la politique mexicaine dans la perspective du 2 juillet, un élément important qui n’a pas été évoqué nous paraît intéressant. Il s’agit de l’aspect religieux très intense du candidat Obrador. En d’autres mots, Obrador ne se bat pas seul : avec lui, il a Jésus Christ et une foi catholique d’une intensité tout à fait rare. Et certains de ses projets sont à la mesure de ce caractère.

Enrique Krauze nous en dit long, ce matin, sur cette question, dans l’ International Herald Tribune.

« Earlier this year an interviewer asked him what religion he followed. “I'm Catholic, fundamentally Christian,” López Obrador responded. “The life and work of Jesus fill me with passion. He, too, was persecuted in his time, spied on by the powerful of his era, and he was crucified.” The interviewer was surprised (there is an unwritten rule that Jesus is never mentioned in Mexican politics) and asked him whether he intended some parallelism. “Not at all,” he said. “I say it because sometimes it is forgotten.”

» Many thought his comment was a cynical appeal to win the hearts of the religious Mexican people. Others, including myself, believe, however, that his words were a sincere reflection of the way he sees himself: “I am calling together a movement of consciousness, a spiritual movement,” he told a reporter in 2004. “Many people see me, humble people, what they tell me is that they are praying for me. I am very democratic and very mystic.”

» Millions of poor Mexicans see in him what he sees in himself: a bestower of manna who will provide the poor with cash handouts and all the services of a great welfare state. His oratory increasingly blends the theological with the revolutionary: He has repeated that he will “purify national life,” inaugurating a new era of “historic transcendence” in which “those on top,” “those with money,” will no longer oppress “those on the bottom.” Believe him: He's a man of his word.

(...)

» But more troubling than his economics is his messianism, which could undermine Mexican democracy. As the Mexican writer Gabriel Zaid pointed out last week in the newspaper Reforma, López Obrador, a former member of the Institutional Revolutionary Party, or PRI, which ruled from 1929 to 2000, wants to return to the political structure of the old days. When the PRI held power, the president controlled the legislature, judiciary, natural resources, state-run businesses, electoral system, monetary policy and budget and could limit freedom of expression.

» But there would be a disturbing novelty to the process as revived by López Obrador: His presidency wouldn't be institutional and bureaucratic like the old regime, but instead bound to his personal charisma. One of his most insistent proposals is to amend the Constitution to allow for referendums and plebiscites, so that halfway through his prospective term (in 2009) “the people” would decide whether he goes or stays.

» Knowing that he would take the microphone daily to report on his government's progress — as he has said he will — it's easy to imagine the result of such a plebiscite. And after that, who is to stop him from altering the law of the land and being re-elected indefinitely, or remaining the power behind all powers, if “the people” demand it? Redemption won't be achieved in the constitutionally alloted six years. A messiah needs time.

(...)

» It is not impossible that Calderón could win — some recent polls have the race too close to call. But even if he does, he'll face great obstacles. While López Obrador has said publicly that he would acknowledge the official results no matter what, he always hedges such claims with a ‘but’ — such as making it conditional on the voting being without irregularities.

» As the race has tightened, he has taken to criticizing the federal electoral institute and has told the crowds that he suspects “intentions of fraud.” This raises fears that he will acknowledge defeat only if Calderón wins by a significant margin, say, greater than 5 percent.

» If López Obrador were to dispute a Calderón victory in the streets and at the tribunal, the PRI would be likely to join him. If the tribunal cannot name a winner to take the oath on Dec. 1, the day President Vicente Fox Quesada must step down, the national legislature has to name an interim president who would have to call a new election. Mexicans would live in a state of political volatility and our electoral institutions would be discredited. »

Mis en ligne le 29 juin 2006 à 18H04