Barack Obama populiste (et protectionniste)

Barack Obama populiste (et protectionniste)

Vous avez parfois cité Irwin Stelzer dans vos articles. C’est un pilier du Hudson Institute et, par conséquent, un membre éminent et très représentatif de l’establishment washingtonien. Je crois que sa chronique hebdomadaire du dernier Sunday Times du 24 janvier (lien : http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/columnists/article6999992.ece) intéressera les lecteurs de dedefensa. C’est sur Barack Obama devenu “président populiste”, dont vous parliez hier. Stelzer écrit sa chronique dans la perspective du message sur l’état de l’Union, qu’Obama donne au Congrès cette semaine.

Stelzer n’est pas un poète, c’est un homme qui ne s’intéresse pas aux spéculations sur la psychologie du président. Il prend l’évolution récente d’Obama du point de vue des conséquences économiques. Il parle des banques, du déficit, etc., mais je trouve que ce n’est pas le plus intéressant. Il y a surtout les conséquences commerciales qu’il prévoit, notamment les relations avec la Chine.

«Enough is enough. That is the message the most reliably Democratic state in America sent to Barack Obama and his Democratic Congress last week when its voters chose Republican Scott Brown to represent them in the Senate. Brown entered the race for the Massachusetts seat vacated by the death of Ted Kennedy some 30 points behind in the polls, and won with an astonishing margin of five points. […]

»The message from Massachusetts will have a profound effect on economic policy. When the president delivers his State of the Union message next week we will see the new populist Obama — not the elitist who derided senator-elect Brown for driving to campaign meetings in his truck… […]

»The drive to bring down unemployment will not stop with the proposals in the president’s State of the Union message. The Massachusetts election increases the party’s reliance on the trade unions that have the cash and the manpower to deliver Democrat core voters in the 2010 congressional and 2012 presidential elections. And those unions are not exactly disciples of Adam Smith.

»The president has already imposed tariffs on tyres and some steel products imported largely from China. The next target of the unions is Chinese glass. They point out that the World Trade Center’s twin towers were sheathed in good old made-in-the-USA glass, but the building that is springing up to replace it will be covered with glass imported from China. Whether that is because Chinese glassmakers receive government subsidies, as the unions allege, or because the Chinese are more efficient glassmakers, matters less to politicians, and to many Americans, than the symbolism of America’s new Freedom Tower being covered in Chinese glass.

»Add to the mix the fact that many of the world’s leading economies are depending on export-led growth to get out of recession, and that the Chinese show no signs of allowing their currency to appreciate. These countries continue to see Americans as the world’s consumers of last resort, while at the same time calling on the US to reduce its trade deficit.

»What our trading partners see as the export of goods and services, our politicians will see as importing unemployment. True, consumers here benefit from cheaper imports, even from those subsidised by job-hungry China. Consumers are the winners, workers the losers. And unlike consumers, unions are organised to put pressure on Congress.

»Policymakers live in dread of the “unintended consequences” of their actions. One unintended consequence of Brown’s election might just be greater reliance on protectionist measures by politicians who believe they have to cut unemployment now, regardless of the long-term consequences.»

“Vieux Rebelle”