Contre-pied à la russe

L’entretien Bush-Poutine au G8 semblait fait surtout pour tenter de dissiper une mauvaise humeur générale et les divers bruits de tension, essentiellement à propos du réseau anti-missiles US en Europe. Il a été beaucoup plus loin à cause des Russes, qui ont fait une proposition-surprise qui, comme c’est sa fonction, a surpris la partie américaniste. Le Financial Times de ce jour constate simplement : «Vladimir Putin on Thursday seized the initiative in the dispute over US plans to site anti-missile defences in central Europe…»

Le journal développe ensuite la proposition de Poutine, qui est de regrouper le complexe de défense anti-missiles destiné à l’Europe Centrale dans une ancienne station-radar d’Azerbaïdjan.

«Mr Putin said he had secured agreement from Azerbaijan to use the radar as part of a collaborative system that would protect Europe from incoming missiles.

»If Washington accepted the proposal, he would not have to carry out his recent threat to retarget Russian missiles against Europe, Mr Putin said.

» “This will make it unnecessary for us to place our offensive complexes along the border with Europe,” Mr Putin told reporters, standing beside his US counterpart.

»Mr Bush described the proposal as “interesting” and said both sides had agreed to engage in “strategic dialogue” to “share ideas” over missile defence.

»Stephen Hadley, US national security adviser, said the proposal demonstrated Russian willingness to engage in “real co-operation” on missile defence.

»But the two sides were at odds over the potential role of the Azerbaijan radar. Mr Putin portrayed it as an alternative to a planned US facility in the Czech Republic that Russia opposes. But Mr Hadley said only that Azerbaijan could make a “contribution” to the broader system.

»Pavel Felgenhauer, a defence analyst in Moscow, said the Gabala radar station involved in the proposal was not a suitable substitute for the Czech Republic as it was too close to Iran – one of the countries Washington says its missile shield is designed to defend against. It was also too far from the planned US interceptor base in Poland to be viable. “The Pentagon won’t want this at all,” he said. “The White House will not reject it out of hand, but I don’t forecast any agreement.”

»US officials sought to portray the proposal as a breakthrough in efforts to secure Moscow’s backing for its missile shield and a first step towards serious negotiations about co-operation.

»But it appeared highly unlikely that Washington would sacrifice its Czech base or put a key part of its missile shield in the hands of a former Soviet state.»

Commentant les circonstances de l’annonce de la proposition russe, le même Financial Times décrit les conditions où Poutine a fait cette déclaration, lors de la conférence de presse commune Bush-Poutine après leur entretien. La forme du commentaire laisse apparaître que les Américains n’étaient au courant de rien avant la rencontre, et il semble bien que Poutine en ait parlé pour la première fois à Bush directement, laissant celui-ci sans réaction mesurée et, bien sûr, sans que les experts US aient pu étudier la proposition et éventuellement élever des objections : «The offer raised the prospect of unprecedented military co-operation between the US and Russia and provided a potential solution to their bitter dispute over missile defence. But after the two leaders finished their news conference, it was obvious the proposal had caught the US by surprise.»

Les Russes ont bien compris que cette crise est d’abord une affaire d’influence et de communication, que la rhétorique et la façon de s’en servir comptent bien plus que les missiles et les radars. Leur proposition a, pour eux, l’avantage de réduire, — pour l’instant, — l’interprétation type “nouvelle Guerre froide” à un exercice vulgaire de propagande. La partie, la crise “Euromissiles-II”, s’annonce extrêmement complexe et diverse.

Mis en ligne le 8 juin 2007 à 09H19