Détente sur le “front iranien”

Jim Lobe signale ce qu’il juge être une détente sur le front des imprécations et menaces contre l’Iran. Voir son texte du 6 novembre, sur son site LobeLog.com

Lobe signale plusieurs points allant dans ce sens, qui suivent la débauche de menaces et de discours furieux (Bush, Cheney & compagnie) de la fin octobre. Lobe signale comme particulièrement significatifs l’intervention de Hagel, des 29 sénateurs démocrates, et le cheminement de la lettre de Hagel jusqu’à l'amiral Fallon, avec approbation de Fallon, tout cela passant peut-être, – sans doute, – par l’approbation de Gates.

«Rear Adm. Gregory Smith, director of the Multi-National Force-Iraq’s communications division told reporters that Iran appears to have kept an earlier promise to the government of Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki (back in September, according to the Los Angeles Times) to stop the alleged flow of EFP’s (explosively formed projectiles) from Iran to Shiite militias battling U.S. forces in Iraq. “It’s our best judgment that these particular EFPs …in recent large cache finds to not appear to have arrived here in Iraq after those pledges were made,” AP quotes Smith as saying, echoing similar statements by Iraq by Gates last Thursday. At the time, Gates also said that he had no direct evidence that top Iranian officials were aware of or approved such smuggling activities. Gates’ remarks dominated the Pentagon’s daily ‘Early Bird’ round-up of important news articles that is distributed throughout the national-security bureaucracy.

»What makes this latest development so intriguing, of course, is that it comes on the heels of a sharp rise in the administration’s rhetoric against Iran, beginning with Bush’s reference two and a half weeks ago to “World War III” if Tehran acquires the knowledge necessary to build a nuclear weapon, followed by Dick Cheney’s extraordinary bellicose speech to the Washington Institute for Near East Policy (WINEP) October 21 in which warned of “serious consequences” if Iran did not freeze its nuclear program and accused it of “direct involvement in the killings of Americans.” This was followed, of course, by the imposition of sweeping and unprecedented sanctions against Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) which was accused of promoting terrorism in Iraq and elsewhere in the Middle East and proliferating weapons of mass destruction (WMD).

»That train of events provoked some push-back by worried Democrats (and in a letter to Bush from Republican maverick Sen. Chuck Hagel) in Congress, with 30 senators expressing concern in the form of a letter expressing “serious concerns with the provocative statements and actions stemming from your administration…” sent to Bush November 1 and from most of the Democratic presidential candidates (of whom, however, only Sens. Dodd and Biden signed the letter).

»But the most interesting reaction came from within the Pentagon itself, including Gates’ remarks last Thursday and reports that CentCom commander Adm. William Fallon, who has made it abundantly clear that he strongly opposes a military attack on Iran, had responded favourably to Hagel’s letter to Bush. Today’s announcement by Adm. Smith appears to be consistent with this pattern, only it goes beyond simple words, particularly given the fact that all of the “Irbil 5? have been accused of membership in the IRGC’s Quds Force, although Smith reportedly said the nine individuals who will be released were of “no continuing value, nor do they pose a further theat to Iraqi security.”»

Jim Lobe considère donc que ces différents développements constituent le fait politique d'une détente réelle sur le “front iranien”. Il est remarquable que cette circonstance soit identifiée malgré les excès mentionnés, venant de Bush et de Cheney. Ce point semble indiquer, toujours selon Lobe, que la fraction extrémiste de l’administration perd du terrain. Il faut noter que, dans l’analyse du journaliste, on est conduit à parler de “fractions” en y incluant le Président, comme si GW Bush ne représentait pas plus qu’une autre force quelconque au sein de son administration.

Mis en ligne le 8 novembre 2007 à 12H56