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432Cet article du journal (en langue arabe) Al Safir, quotidien libanais de gauche, de Daoud Rammal, nous a paru particulièrement intéressant. (Nous ne tenons pas compte de la réputation du journal et de toute cette sorte de choses, nous en tenant pour notre compte au contenu de l’article en question.)
L’article est écrit essentiellement à partir de “sources diplomatiques” diverses, évidemment non identifiées, ce qui implique évidemment un élément d’incertitude évident, – mais certainement pas plus, et sans guère de doute plutôt beaucoup moins, qu’un communiqué du quai d’Orsay lu par le ministre en fonction ou qu’un article du New York Times. L’intérêt est, à notre sens, que ce texte rassemble divers évènements et diverses spéculations qui nous semblent tous intéressants, logiques, et qui répondent tous à la logique principielle telle que nous la suggérons par ailleurs, dans notre Bloc Notes de ce même 26 septembre 2012. Les évènements étant propices au développement de cette logique principielle, la confiance intuitive mais clairement substantivée qu’on peut avoir dans ce rapport est à mesure. Nous mentionnons quelques-uns de ces divers éléments et de ces diverses spéculations, avant l’article lui-même.
• L’importance qui commence à apparaître de la réunion du “quartette” régional (ou “groupe de contact”) sur la Syrie, réduit à un quasi-trio, au Caire le 17 septembre, avec les ministres des affaires étrangères égyptien, iranien et turc, mais en l’absence du ministre saoudien correspondant. (On sait que la création de ce “quartette-trio” est une idée de Morsi, émise lors du sommet islamique du 14-15 août qui eut lieu, – comble d’ironie, – à Ryad, sur convocation de l’Arabie… “Comble d’ironie”, puisque le grand perdant dans cette initiative est l’Arabie, selon sa politique extrémiste en Syrie qui semble de plus en plus apparaître comme risquée, y compris aux divers princes de la maison Saoud eux-mêmes.)
• Le rôle nouveau qu’assumerait l’Iran de s’affirmer comme un participant actif, sinon décisif, dans une éventuelle évolution vers un accord d’apaisement en Syrie. (L’affirmation contenue dans le texte que la visite à Damas, retour du Caire, du ministre iranien se fit dans l’intention explicite de transmettre à Assad le message qu’il est désormais temps de rechercher très sérieusement un accord avec l’opposition syrienne “sérieuse”, c’est-à-dire légitime.) Cela correspond aux déclarations appuyées de Morsi dans son interview du New York Times sur le rôle fondamental de l’Iran dans la crise syrienne.
• Les affirmations concernant une évolution capitale de la Turquie, avec distance de plus en plus grande mise entre ce pays et les rebelles activistes syriens. (Notamment l’affirmation que le “transfert” triomphal de Turquie en Syrie du quartier général de la FSA, ou Free Syrian Army, marquerait en réalité une exigence de la Turquie qui voudrait “libérer” son territoire des rebelles syriens, plutôt que l’affirmation symbolique d’un progrès de la position de la FSA en Syrie.) Ces spéculations ou/et affirmations officieuses épousent la logique d’une situation devenue intenable et dangereuse pour la Turquie.
• Enfin, une indication indirecte, concomitante de la situation dans la région mais affectant la situation aux USA, ajoutée au dossier présenté par cet article. Il s’agit de l’indication que le secrétaire à la défense Panetta a informé la direction politique washingtonienne (les partis républicain et démocrate, l’administration Obama) que la direction des forces armées (disons, le Joint Chiefs of Staff [JCS]) n’accepterait plus de se lancer dans un nouveau conflit. Cela rejoint notre propre spéculation à cet égard (voir le 11 septembre 2012), sur l’attitude des chefs militaires US, résumée avec force par diverses interventions du président du JCS, le général Dempsey.
Voici donc l’article de Al Safir, publié le 25 septembre sous le titre de Iranian-Turkish “detour” towards a political solution in Syria…
«Despite the celebratory mood that prevailed over the March 14 team in light of the announcement that the Free Syrian Army command has been moved from the Turkish lands to the “liberated Syrian lands,” the March 8 team also expressed the same celebratory mood based on preliminary indications that the decision was due to an official Turkish notification to the armed Syrian opposition of the need to leave the Turkish lands.
»This comes concomitantly with diplomatic reports indicating that Ankara has started to distance itself from the internal Syrian events due to several considerations such as the fact that the Turkish situation will be exposed to additional repercussions if the Syrian crisis was to proceed and if the civil war was to expand. According to the same reports, the growing pace of the PKK’s operations and the failure of the attempts exerted by Turkey’s [foreign affairs] minister, Ahmet Davutoglu, in Kirkuk and Washington to contain the Kurds in addition to the security deterioration in the Turkish Alawite regions on the northern Syrian borders and the increase in the opposition within the Turkish military institution: all these elements are pushing the Justice and Development Party, on the evening of its conference, to reconsider its way of dealing with the Syrian crisis.
»According to prominent sources within the March 8 team, this “Turkish detour” is concomitant with an “Iranian detour” that followed the Cairo meeting, which saw the participation of the Communication Group’s foreign ministers including the foreign ministers of Turkey, Egypt and Iran with the absence of the Saudi Foreign Minister, Prince Saud al-Faysal. The Iranian detour is highlighted through the message carried by the Iranian Foreign Minister, Ali Akbar Salihi, to the Syrian President Bashar al-Assad. The message indicated that the time for the initiatives has come and you must seize the opportunity at the soonest possible time.
»The Iranians did not stop at Salihi’s message… They also asked the Russians and the Chinese to work together for the success of the internal opposition’s conference. They offered guarantees and the Iranian Ambassador to Damascus, Mohammad Reza Shibani, sat in the front row of the “Coordination Committee” conference. Along with the Russian and Chinese ambassadors, he applauded the speeches of the Syrian participants who called for change, a peaceful solution, and the halting of the hostilities.
»This is a very important indication, specifically on the part of the Iranians… Interestingly, this Iranian behavior came along with an unprecedented Egyptian tone vis-à-vis Tehran whereby the Egyptian President, Mohammad Morsi, said two days ago that Iran is a main party in the region and it can play an effective and supportive part in solving the Syrian crisis adding that the relations between the two countries are important for solving this crisis.
»One diplomatic report indicates that, despite the high tone of some presidents’ speeches at the Non-Aligned Summit that was held in Tehran at the end of the past month such as the speech of the Egyptian President Mohammad Morsi, the indications to political solutions for the Syrian problem in connection with the Iranian nuclear file have started to appear. The report added: “There is a meaning behind the announcement of some Iranian officials, following the meeting of the quartet communication group, that Syria will soon be celebrating a political solution”…
»A diplomatic source said that “the Egyptian president announced the launching of the work of the quartet communication committee during the meeting of the Arab foreign ministers based on a previous coordination with KSA, Egypt, and Turkey because the repercussions of the Syrian crisis on some of these countries have become very dangerous especially that the regional and international conflict is now out in the open and as it is announcing some dire consequences for the countries that are supporting the armed opposition in Syria and those countries that are distancing themselves like Lebanon and Jordan.”
»The source added: “Prior to the holding of the Non-Aligned Summit in Tehran, two indications appeared that signaled the possible reaching of an international-regional settlement for the Syrian crisis. These indications were: 1. At the summit of the Islamic Cooperation Organization in Mecca a few weeks ago, a lengthy bilateral meeting was held between the Saudi Monarch, King Abdullah Ben Abdel Aziz and the Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinezhad. One of this meeting’s direct practical outcomes consisted of the announcement of both Saudi Arabia and Iran of a unified date for the Al-Fitr holiday. This was a religious announcement resulting from a political decision. For the first time ever, the Al-Fitr holiday date was united between KSA and Iran. This reflected on the unification of the holiday in Lebanon among others.
»2. The other indication consisted of asking the new international delegate, Lakhdar Brahimi, to work on settling the Syrian crisis. This went against the logic that had prevailed following the failure of the previous international envoy, Kofi Annan, when the chances for a political settlement in Syria were deemed nil…
»And is the political settlement in Syria unlinked to the Iranian nuclear file? The diplomatic source asserted that “the answer to this question consists of the position of the American Defense Minister, Leon Panetta, who warned the Republican and Democratic parties in America that the American military command will no longer accept any military adventures decided by the White House’s political Administration…” The source added that the disapproval of the American Defense Minister of dealing a military strike to Iran under the pretext of failing to halt its nuclear program “has affected the political position of the present American Administration, which refused to respond to the demand of the Israeli Prime Minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, to halt the Iranian nuclear program and to secure an international cover for a military blow against Iran…”.»
Mis en ligne le 26 septembre 2012 à 12H59
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