Gates et l’Iran : une analyse alarmiste

Une idée en général admise, en même temps que le plan Baker de l’ISG avait fait son apparition sur la scène washingtonienne, était que le nouveau secrétaire à la défense Robert Gates serait un modéré, qui exercerait une influence modératrice sur l’administration GW. Une récente (22 décembre) analyse de RAW Story offre une vision inverse.

L’analyse cite un ancien officiel de haut niveau de la CIA, affirmant que Gates a été “briefé” par l’équipe du vice-président Cheney, et non par le Pentagone, avant son audition au Sénat pour sa confirmation. C’est une indication selon laquelle Gates serait directement contrôlé par l’aile la plus extrémiste de l’administration. («[A]ccording to a former high ranking CIA official close to the key players, Gates was prepped for his Senate confirmation hearings by high level Cheney staffers, including David Addington, Chief of Staff to the Vice President, and David Wurmser, Cheney's Middle East advisor. “Cheney's office prepped Gates for the hearings,” this official claims. “His guys Wurmser and Addington got [Gates] ready, not the Pentagon.”»)

Le point principal sur lequel porte l’analyse est l’Iran, avec la suggestion que Gates serait beaucoup moins opposé à l’attaque qu’il ne paraît l’être, dans tous les cas selon d’autres interprétations. D’autres indications sont données dans le cadre de cette analyse pour achever de peindre une situation très inquiétante pour ce qui concerne la possibilité d’une attaque contre l’Iran.

«In a recent appearance in Baghdad, Gates made remarks that are discouraging to some military and intelligence officials. “We need to make damned sure,” said Gates, “that the neighbors understand that we're going to be here for a long time — here being the Persian Gulf”.

(…)

»According to intelligence officials and foreign policy experts who spoke on the topic off-record, these views, and a possible expansion of a US military presence in the Gulf region, are of great concern to many experts who had hoped that Gates would be more pragmatic about US options toward Iran.

»News reports Tuesday confirming the deployment plans for a second gulf carrier make more clear than ever that the US buildup in the Gulf is in direct response to perceived threats from Iran.

»Trita Parsi, a Middle East expert at Johns Hopkins University who studied under former Neo-conservative philosopher and economist Francis Fukuyama, says that he finds these developments very “concerning.” Parsi says that he is particularly concerned by the placement of ships in the region as a deterrent, coupled with the already increased activity from the Gulf Corporation Council (GCC) countries.

»“It is coinciding with increased arms sales to the GCC states, as well as efforts by some of these GCC states to get the US to take sides in the Iraqi civil war,” Parsi told RAW STORY. “If Washington chooses to do so, the risk for a regional war will be considerable. The Bush Administration's allergy towards talking to Iran is increasing tensions in the region by the minute at a time when things already are too explosive.”

»Another CIA official reiterates what has been already reported here and in and other publications for the past year, that “Cheney has promised that Iran will be taken care of by spring [of 2007].”»

Mis en ligne le 25 décembre 2006 à 13H54