Israël, type-“IVème République”

Israël, type-“IVème République”

Après les élections de janvier qu’on tenait auparavant pour acquise à l’avantage de Netanyahou, et avec la surprise qu’a constitué l’émergence du parti Yesh Atid de Yair Lapid, la situation est devenue extrêmement complexe et proche de l’impasse. La possibilité de nouvelles élections est même envisagée, dont tous les sondages annoncent qu’elle serait une déroute pour Netanyahou. Dans la situation actuelle, Netanyahou doit former une coalition d’ici le 2 mars. S'il n'y parvient pas, il pourrait demander une extension de deux semaines de délai pour tenter tout de même de mener à bien la constitution de cette coalition, elle-même très incertaine puisqu’elle se ferait principalement avec le parti de Tzipi Livni, qui a adopté une approche de conciliation avec les Palestiniens. Si Netanyahou ne parvient pas à ses fins malgré le délai supplémentaire, le président Peres pourrait alors désigner Lapid comme formateur ou bien décider de nouvelles élections. La chronologie, en temps réel, mesure la paralysie qui pourrait toucher ce pays, comme le résume Yuval Karni, de Yedioth Ahronoth, le 22 février 2013 :

» Netanyahu is now facing a ticking clock: by next Thursday, February 28, he is supposed to present a coalition – which is a particularly complex task, given the fact that no official negotiations are due to be held on Sunday and Monday because of the Purim holiday. If he does not succeed, Netanyahu will request a further extension from President Peres. The last extension Netanyahu will receive will be exactly two weeks long, until March 14, and if he does not form a government by this date, Israel will find itself in a political crisis that can be expected to end in new elections within 90 days.»

On peut lire évidemment de nombreux articles de la presse israélienne sur le détail de cette situation israélienne qui paralyse la politique de ce pays-clef dans les crises du Moyen-Orient et, d’une façon plus générale, dans la politique du bloc BAO. On citera notamment «Netanyahu's Many Roles», de Ben Caspit, for Al-Monitor Israel Pulse, le 22 février 2013, ou «Lapid and Bennett gaining strengtn – repeat elections will harm Netanyahu», de Shalom Yerushalmi, dans Ma'ariv le 22 février 2013

Une analyse de Associated Press du 22 février 2013, permet d’avoir une vue globale de la situation… A notre sens, avec les tendances politiques qui virevoltent et font passer au second plan les spéculations de savoir quelle politique émergerait de ce tourbillon, la question essentielle ici devient de plus en plus de mesurer le désordre profond dans lequel s’enfonce la politique israélienne, mettant en cause le système lui-même si les prévisions pessimistes, voire simplement réalistes, se confirment. La crise intérieure israélienne commence à prendre le dessus sur son action crisique extérieure, rejoignant ainsi un mouvement général perceptible dans nombre de pays du bloc BAO.

«Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's decision to bring a dovish rival into his Cabinet appears to be backfiring, drawing heavy criticism both in Israel and from the Palestinians and suddenly complicating the task of forming a viable coalition government, to the point where rivals are openly threatening to force new elections. It is now uncertain whether Netanyahu will meet an initial deadline next week for forming a new coalition, and it is possible that he will fail altogether and the task will be assigned to a rival, most likely former TV anchorman Yair Lapid, a new political star who heads the centrist Yesh Atid party. […]

»Netanyahu has been scrambling to build a majority coalition in parliament since the Jan. 22 election. As leader of the largest faction in parliament, Likud-Yisrael Beitenu, he has been charged with the responsibility for forming a new government. But with just 31 seats under his control, he is far short of the 61-seat majority, out of a total of 120 seats in parliament, needed for a coalition. The array of rightist and religious parties considered Netanyahu's natural allies did eke out 61 seats in the Jan. 22 election — but that informal alliance has long been strained over a host of internal disagreements and it is showing signs of collapse. That has forced Netanyahu to look elsewhere, outside of his political comfort zone.

»This week, the hawkish leader seemed to find an unlikely new ally, announcing his first coalition deal with former Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni, appointing her justice minister and chief negotiator with the Palestinians. The appointment was meant to signal that Netanyahu, who has come under heavy criticism internationally for the past four years of deadlock in Mideast peace efforts, is preparing to take a softer line toward the Palestinians in his new term. Livni is a former peace negotiator who has a good relationship with the Palestinian leadership and who is well respected internationally. The alliance also was meant to pressure other potential coalition partners to join him.

»So far, Netanyahu's gambit appears to be missing out on both counts. The appointment is generating little excitement, and Livni, who campaigned on a platform almost exclusively pushing for peace with the Palestinians, has been accused of selling out to the hardline Netanyahu.

»Livni's new political party, "The Movement," won just six parliamentary seats in last month's election. Critics said that after spending the past four years lambasting Netanyahu's policies, Livni appears desperate. “Tzipi Livni is no less trustworthy or cynical than other politicians who broke their word, bent over backwards, put away their slogans and election speeches and galloped into the arms of the one they had described as the mother of all sin,” wrote commentator Yossi Verter in Haaretz newspaper… […]

»With Livni on board, Netanyahu now controls 37 seats, still far short of a majority. He is now expected to court a pair of ultra-Orthodox religious parties. In the best case scenario, Netanyahu would still be several seats short of a majority. It will be virtually impossible for him to form a government without support of either Lapid's ”Yesh Atid” Party, or the “Jewish Home,” a nationalist party close to the Jewish settler movement.

»Both parties campaigned on a key issue popular with the public — ending a controversial system of draft exemptions given to ultra-Orthodox seminary students. They have both been cool to sitting in a government that includes the ultra-Orthodox, who oppose any changes in the draft. For now, they are maintaining a common front, signaling they want to serve together in the next government. Netanyahu is expected press Jewish Home hard to join him. But so far, Jewish Home's leader, Naftali Bennett, shows no signs of bending. If anything, the Livni appointment appears to have pushed him further away. Bennett, who opposes making any concessions to the Palestinians, reacted angrily to Livni's appointment… […]

»A [Netanyahu] failure to reach a government […] could give Lapid a chance to form a coalition, or could trigger new elections. Polls published Friday show that Likud would take a beating if a new election were held.

»The daily Maariv published a Maagar Mohot poll that showed Likud-Yisrael Beitenu losing three seats from 31 to 28 compared to Yesh Atid winning five more seats from 19 to 24 and Jewish Home getting an additional seat at 13 from 12. Yediot Ahronot published a prognosis by pollsters Panels Politics that suggested even more worrying results for Netanyahu should a new election be held. It showed Yesh Atid getting 30 seats compared to just 22 for Likud-Yisrael Beitenu. Results of that poll show the biggest bloc could be the center-left together with Arab parties with 65 seats, Yediot reported.»

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