La fin du pétrodollar

Encore un article, très long et très largement documenté, sur l’histoire de l’installation de la domination du pétrodollar, sur sa position actuelle et sur son destin à très courte échéance. L’auteur est Bulent Gokay, maître de conférence en relations internationales, School of Politics, International Relations and philosophy, Keele University au Royaume-Uni. Son analyse, publiée sur le site de la Pravda en deux parties, les 15 mai et 16 mai, offre une conclusion très pessimiste sur le sort du système américain.

« Two months after the invasion, the Iraqi euro accounts were switched back to dollars, and it was announced that payments for Iraqi oil would be once again in US dollars only. Global dollar supremacy was once again restored. But the story does not end there. Wars often don't work out as planned. Ironically, the invasion of Iraq with its “thousands” of “tactical” mistakes — as recently admitted by Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice — was meant to solidify and ensure the US 's post Cold-War global dominance. Paradoxically, despite all these military and political advances and the rapidly increasing grip of US military power in Eurasia, for a variety of economic and political reasons, a growing number of oil producers in the Middle East, South America, and Russia are talking about openly trading oil for euros instead of dollars, or trading oil in a “basket of currencies”. To do so would accelerate the US dollar's fall, and boost the euro's claim to become the world's second reserve currency. If a nation's economy is only as good as its currency, and the dollar continues to lose value, the US economy would be headed for a steep fall under these conditions.

» Superior military forces of the US and other Western states may take but cannot hold Iraq's (and Iran's) oil. Far from staving off the downfall of the US dollar, their aggression and arrogance may instead compel OPEC to “go euro” en masse. Since 2001, member countries of the OPEC have sharply increased deposits in euro's and placed less in dollars. US dollar-denominated deposits fell from 75 percent of total deposits in the third quarter of 2001 to 61.5 percent in the last quarter of 2004. During the same period, the share of euro-denominated deposits rose from 12 percent to 20 percent. »

Mis en ligne le 22 mai 2006 à 10H07