La menace mexicaine

Le Mexique élit son nouveau président le 2 juillet. A la perspective de l’élection d’un nouveau président nettement à gauche (Obrador, de “tendance-Chavez”) a succédé la perspective d’une élection très serrée, avec la possibilité de contestations et de troubles sociaux. Jephraim P. Gundzik analyse la situation pour le groupe PINR :

« On July 2, 2006, Mexico will hold general elections. In addition to a new president, voters will also choose new representatives for all 500 seats in congress and all 128 seats in the senate. Governorships in three states, including the Federal District, and 365 mayorships will also be contested. Until recently, Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, the Democratic Revolutionary Party's (P.R.D.) presidential candidate, maintained a wide lead over all other potential candidates in public opinion polls. In May, public opinion polls indicated that Felipe Calderon, the candidate of P.A.N., overtook Lopez Obrador.

» The increasingly pro-P.A.N. bias of Mexico's media and corporate sector is behind Calderon's surge in public opinion polls. This bias ensures that the presidential race will be closely fought. It also raises the prospect of old-style electoral fraud claims — claims that could quickly produce widespread social unrest. Apart from the increasing potential for post-election social unrest, which candidate assumes the presidency is not especially significant as no party is expected to gain a legislative majority in the simultaneous congressional elections. »

Gundzik décrit un Mexique dans un état profond d’instabilité sociale, économique et politique. Les rapports avec les USA sont un des facteurs conjoncturels essentiels de cette instabilité. Le traité NAFTA de libre-échange (appliqué avec les USA depuis 1994) a accru les situations extrêmes et nourrit l’instabilité. Aujourd’hui, l’économie mexicaine dépend dans une proportion non négligeable de l’émigration vers les USA, qui réduit la pression sociale et fournit des revenus supplémentaires importants (les émigrés aux USA envoyant de l’argent dans leurs familles restées au Mexique). Dans ce cadre, le durcissement US sur la frontière, avec le déploiement de la Garde Nationale et les tentatives de bouclage de cette frontière, accroît la tension et risque de la polariser vers une hostilité à l’encontre des USA. Il s’agit d’un cas typique d’auto-aggravation de la situation par la mise en place d’un système libéral favorisant les intérêts privés aux dépens des intérêts nationaux et de l’amélioration de la situation sociale : les forces déstructurantes en action contre les forces structurantes et amenant à la possibilité de troubles graves.

Sur les mesures US, Gundzik écrit ceci :

« In addition to unrest, deteriorating social conditions in Mexico have also sparked a surge in illegal immigration to the United States. The flow of illegal immigrants across the Mexico-U.S. border has increased from less than 100,000 annually in the late 1990s to over 500,000 annually in the past two years. Without this immigration and the return flow of remittances it provides, social and political instability in Mexico would probably be exponentially greater now. For this reason, militarization of the U.S.-Mexico border and immigration reforms in the United States will have far-reaching negative political, social and economic consequences for Mexico.

(...)

» The militarization of the U.S.-Mexico border, which began on June 1, includes the deployment of 6,000 U.S. National Guard troops. These troops will be joined by 4,000 additional Border Patrol agents in the next two years. In addition to more manpower and equipment for policing the border, the United States will also begin constructing hundreds of miles of security fencing and automobile barriers along the border. This will significantly reduce the flow of illegal Mexican immigrants to the United States beginning this year, capping the flow of remittances back to Mexico.

» The flow of remittances back to Mexico will probably decline substantially beginning in 2007 as deportations of illegal immigrants increase. Impending changes to U.S. immigration laws will drive deportations. Although moderates in the U.S. House and Senate and President Bush support the legalization of many illegal immigrants in the United States, conservatives in both houses stand strongly opposed. These conservatives, who are overwhelmingly Republican, far outweigh the moderates, suggesting that immigration reform legislation will inevitably include a degree of criminalization for employers of illegal immigrants and stepped-up deportation efforts. »

Mis en ligne le 7 juin 2006 à 08H57