La politique extérieure de Sarko selon Pfaff

L’analyse de l’historien américain William Pfaff est toujours une référence importante. Son analyse de ce qu’il juge que sera la politique extérieure du nouveau président français est, par conséquent évidemment, une indication très importante.

Il la donne dans un texte du 8 mai sur son site personnel. Elle est conforme, à notre sens, à la lucidité et à la mesure de l’historien, grand connaisseur des nécessités de toute politique extérieure, et particulièrement celle de la France. Elle expose un scepticisme fondé pour l’hypothèse de changements importants dans cette politique, parce que les intérêts de la France restent ce qu’ils sont. (Bien entendu, et fort justement, Pfaff centre son analyse sur les relations de la France avec les USA et tout ce qui en découle.)

« The main interest for Americans and the American government is whether French foreign policy will change. The answer is yes, but not as much as people may think.

»The subject was almost entirely absent from the campaign debates. That is an indication that the policy of outgoing president Jacques Chirac enjoyed a large consensus of support.

»Sarkozy prominently presented himself as a friend of the United States during an American visit last year, and criticized the manner by which the Chirac government had opposed UN Security Council support for the invasion of Iraq in 2003, but he has also said that he agrees with France’s decision to oppose the war.

»On the night of his election victory he said, “I want to tell [Americans] that France will always be by their side when they need her, but I also want to tell them that friendship is accepting that one’s friends can act differently.” He added criticism of the Bush administration for its stubborn refusal to do more on climate change.

»When national leaders change there is an inclination to overrate the importance of human relations. People think that international affairs are heavily influenced, if not ruled, by the personal opinions and mutual relationships of leaders who like to refer to one another as their great friends, and put on silly clothes for group photographs. Americans have not forgotten George W. Bush’s peering into the soul of Vladimir Putin the first time they met, and finding him good.

»Sarkozy might like Americans more than Jacques Chirac did, but Chirac really did like the U.S., worked there for a time as a young man, and speaks serviceable English — none of which is true of Sarkozy, whose English is primitive, and who should know better than to try to speak it in public.

»However, as his election-night speech indicated, France’s national interests and public opinion will determine French policy, once the protocol niceties are set aside.

Mis en ligne le 11 mai 2007 à 16H27