La stratégie iranienne de GW à la dérive, notamment dans le Golfe

La situation de la crise iranienne est en train de changer radicalement, essentiellement à la suite de la publication de la NIE 2007. Ecrivant dans le Christian Science Monitor (repris sur Yahoo.com ce 4 janvier 2008), le professeur Marc Lynch décrit le changement vertigineux qui est en train de s’installer, notamment dans les pays arabes en général et ceux du Golfe en particulier. Pour Lynch, les dirigeants des pays du Golfe ont résolument tourné le dos à la politique US d’isolement de l’Iran et il ne reste plus aux USA qu’à modifier sa politique dans ce sens.

«The states of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) are accommodating themselves to Iran's growing weight in the region's politics. They remain key parts of America's security architecture in the region, hosting massive US military bases and underwriting the American economy in exchange for protection. But as Saudi analyst Khalid al-Dakheel argues, they are no longer content sitting passively beneath the US security umbrella and want to avoid being a pawn in the US-Iranian struggle for power. Flush with cash, they are not interested in a war that would mess up business.

»That's why America's attempt to shore up containment against Iran increasingly seems to be yesterday's battle. On Dec. 3, Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad addressed the GCC in Doha, Qatar. It was the first time an Iranian leader had addressed the alliance, which was formed in 1981 against the Iranian challenge.

»Weeks later, Saudi King Abdullah invited Mr. Ahmadinejad to Saudi Arabia – the president's third visit in a year – for the hajj, or Muslim pilgrimage to Mecca. The king used the occasion to hold cordial talks.

»Iran is even reaching out to Egypt. Ali Larijani, head of Iran's National Security Council, visited Cairo recently for the highest level talks in 27 years. Afterward, Arab League chief Amr Moussa bluntly stated that there was no point in Arabs treating Iran as an enemy.

»Gulf Arabs have thus visibly discarded the central pillar of the past year of America's Middle East strategy. Saudis and Egyptians had been the prime movers in anti-Iranian and anti-Shiite agitation. When they are inviting Ahmadinejad and Mr. Larijani to their capitals, America's talk of isolating Iran sounds outdated.

»One hears little today of the “Shiite crescent” threatening the region, against which Arab officials once gravely warned. The Bush administration's proposed “axis of moderation,” joining Sunni Arab states and Israel against Iran, has quietly passed from view.

»Meanwhile, the GCC seems more unified and confident than it has in years. Earlier this week the six member countries agreed to form a common market. Saudi Arabia and Qatar have mended fences. Pressures for domestic political reforms have been largely defanged, and the oil bonanza has allowed Saudi Arabia to pursue an energetic foreign policy. The Gulf states won't abandon their US protectors anytime soon, but they seem more willing than ever to act on their own initiative.»

Cette modification de la situation de la crise iranienne, avec retraite précipitée des thèses maximalistes bushistes, est accentuée par les nouvelle venues d’Irak, en provenance du bureau … du général Petraeus. Obligeamment, le chef des forces US en Irak confirme, comme le rapporte aujourd’hui Jim Lobe, que l’activité hostile de l’Iran en Irak est en net recul, si elle existe encore. Ces estimations des militaires US en Irak confirmeraient que les promesses iraniennes faites au gouvernement irakien d’abandonner tout soutien aux groupes des milices chiites sont suivies d’effet.

«In a new blow to the neo-conservative hard-liners at the American Enterprise Institute (AEI), their hero, Gen. David Petraeus, has apparently concluded that Iran is indeed following through on its reported pledge earlier this fall to the Iraqi government to cut its alleged supply of weapons to Shi’a militias in Iraq. That assessment comes from none other than the far-right Washington Times which featured a front-page article by Sara Carter Thursday, entitled “Iran No Longer Aids Iraq Militants.”

»The article quotes Petraeus’ spokesman, Col. Steven Boylan, as praising Tehran’s recent performance in words that must upset Iran hawk Michael Ledeen, in particular: “We are ready to confirm the excellence of the senior Iranian leadership in the pledge to stop the funding, training, equipment and resourcing of the militia special groups,” Boylan is quoting as telling the Times. “We have seen a downward trend in the signature-type attacks using weapons provided by Iran.” He said that the decline began in October, although he went on to say that his command remains in a “wait and see mode,” as well.»

Mis en ligne le 5 janvier 2008 à 14H45