La “théorie de la patate chaude” : tenir en Irak jusqu’en 2009 pour refiler la défaite au successeur…

Une théorie nouvelle commence à être développée ici et là, concernant l’Irak. Nommons-la “théorie de la patate chaude”. Il s’agit de ceci : malgré tous les bruits de renforcement, de changements de généraux et autres, les bruits de résolution de GW, de volonté de remporter la victoire, etc., l’idée est que l’on veut tenir en Irak jusqu’en 2009 pour refiler l’horrible “patate chaude” de la défaite au successeur de GW. L’idée est bien cette incroyable chose : GW ne veut pas laisser à l’Histoire un “legs” catrastrophique. Il semblerait donc qu’ils ont de ces idées-là, ces gens-là…

• Il y a d’abord Robert Parry qui, sur ConsortiumNews.com, explique, le 3 janvier, que le renforcement prévu par GW Bush n’aura aucun effet décisif sur la situation. Parry en conclut que le seul but de l’opération est de donner l’illusion que Bush se bat pour la victoire avec comme conséquence de retarder l’inéluctable défaite et de la refiler au prochain président…

«Even top advocates for the “surge,” such as retired Army Gen. Jack Keane and neoconservative activist Frederick W. Kagan, have argued that U.S. troop levels must be increased by at least 30,000 for 18 months or more to bring security to Baghdad, what they call a “precondition” for any successful outcome.

»“Any other option is likely to fail,” Keane and Kagan wrote in an Op-Ed article in the Washington Post on Dec. 27, 2006.

»So, the more modest escalation of up to 20,000 soldiers would appear to represent what might be called “Operation: Save Bush’s Legacy,” with the goal of postponing the inevitable until 2009 when American defeat can be palmed off on a new President.»

• L’idée est reprise, avec bien plus d’éclat encore, par le sénateur démocrate Joseph Biden, nouveau président de la commission des relations extérieures du Sénat. Glen Kessler en fait rapport dans le Washington Post du 5 janvier.

«Sen. Joseph R. Biden Jr. (D-Del.), chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, said yesterday that he believes top officials in the Bush administration have privately concluded they have lost Iraq and are simply trying to postpone disaster so the next president will “be the guy landing helicopters inside the Green Zone, taking people off the roof,” in a chaotic withdrawal reminiscent of Vietnam.

»“I have reached the tentative conclusion that a significant portion of this administration, maybe even including the vice president, believes Iraq is lost,” Biden said. “They have no answer to deal with how badly they have screwed it up. I am not being facetious now. Therefore, the best thing to do is keep it from totally collapsing on your watch and hand it off to the next guy — literally, not figuratively.”

(… )

»Biden expressed opposition to the president's plan for a “surge” of additional U.S. troops and said he has grave doubts about whether the Iraqi government has the will or the capacity to help implement a new approach. He said he hopes to use the hearings to “illuminate the alternatives available to this president” and to provide a platform for influencing Americans, especially Republican lawmakers.

»“There is nothing a United States Senate can do to stop a president from conducting his war,” Biden said. “The only thing that is going to change the president's mind, if he continues on a course that is counterproductive, is having his party walk away from his position.”»

Mis en ligne le 6 janvier 2007 à 15H03