L’armée, clef de la révolution

L’armée, clef de la révolution

Après le discours défiant de Moubarak hier soir et l’annonce de possibles réactions violentes des foules contestataires du régime, au Caire et ailleurs en Egypte, l’évolution de la situation dépend plus que jamais de la position de l’armée égyptienne. Dans le blog permanent qu’il entretient sur les événements en Egypte, le Guardian publie, ce 11 février 2011, deux nouvelles montrant les réalités et les spéculations concernant des divisions dans l’armée.

• «9.24am: As everyone awaits the army's next move the people in Tahrir Square in Cairo are chanting that the people and the army are “together”. There are also reports of army officers joining the protests. From Reuters:

»An Egyptian army officer who joined protests in Cairo's Tahrir Square said on Friday 15 other middle-ranking officers had also gone over to the demonstrators. “The armed forces' solidarity movement with the people has begun,” Major Ahmed Ali Shouman told Reuters by telephone just after dawn prayers.

»On Thursday evening Shouman told crowds in Tahrir that he had handed in his weapon and joined their protests demanding an immediate end to President Hosni Mubarak's 30-year rule. “Some 15 officers ... have joined the people's revolution,” he said, listing their ranks ranging from captain to lieutenant colonel. “Our goals and the people's are one.” Shouman said the other officers would address the crowd after Friday midday prayers.

»Another army major walked up to Shouman while he was talking with a Reuters reporter in Tahrir on Thursday and introduced himself, saying: “I have also joined the cause”...

»Protesters carried Shouman on their shoulders, chanting “The people and army are united”, after he spoke to them on stage ... Shouman, who had to show his army credentials to a few suspicious protesters, said he had urged other officers to join the planned anti-Mubarak demonstrations across Egypt. He said he had 15 years of army service and had been told to guard the western entrance to Tahrir Square. Many of the other officers siding with the protesters had been posted around Tahrir and had been in constant contact with those inside.»

• «9.47am: Rosemary Hollis, professor of Middle East policy studies and director of the Olive Tree scholarship programme at City University, London, said there was “a distinct possibility” the armed forces would now split. She said there were a couple of ways this split could go. One would be a split between older, senior officers and younger ones from the middle ranks. “The most senior ranks are the same age as Mubarak and Suleiman,” she said. “The younger men are their [the demonstrators'] generation. They will identify less with Mubarak and more with the future of the country they want to be part of.”

»She said the other way the armed forces could split would be ideologically, between those who wanted to concentrate on “law and order” and a “managed transition under Mubarak and co” and felt this would be “preferable to the dangers of a transition to democracy” and on the other side those “embracing change with all its uncertainty”.

»She had been told that this ideological split could run along the lines of the air force (Mubarak's old service) and republican guard on one side, and “everyone else”, including the regular army, on the side of change. Hollis said: “Militaries aren't good at transitions to democracy. They're more comfortable with continuity.” But, on the other hand, “the army has not been clearly on the side of Mubarak” during this criris.

»Whatever happens, she said, “the army will have the final say”.»

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