Le bateau ivre anglo-saxon

Qui commande aux Etats-Unis, GW Bush? Qui commande au Royaume-Uni, Tony Blair? Réponses douteuses dans les deux cas. L’Irak est en train de réduire en lambeaux la stabilité et la maîtrise tant vantées des deux régimes anglo-saxons.

“The fact of the matter”, comme ils disent, est qu’une fièvre de panique s’est emparée des deux establishments. En cause, une seule question : comment se sortir d’Irak, et vite? Aux USA, la recherche d’une “stratégie de sortie” prend des allures frénétiques. Le plus intéressant, au travers de ces nouvelles, est de découvrir que, de plus en plus, les deux pays fonctionnent avec des structures parallèles qui coopèrent entre elles.

• Aux USA, l’ISG (Iraq Study Group présidé par James Baker) accentue sa pression et pousse l’examen des solutions draconiennes qu’il propose.

• Ce que montre un article du Guardian, c’est que le Foreign Office de Londres travaille sur les mêmes options, en coopération étroite avec l’ISG.

«Pressure for a change of strategy is partly the result of leaks from a review from a study group set up by the former US secretary of state, James Baker, at Mr Bush's request. The leaks from Mr Baker's Iraq Study Group (ISG), which is due to report after next month's Congressional elections, suggest it will recommend a fundamental change of course.

»The Foreign Office is conducting a review in tandem with Mr Baker. UK officials said the Foreign Office was “beavering away” on about half a dozen options, roughly the same as those considered by the ISG. One official said discussions were proceeding at “a high tempo”.

»Among the changes the ISG is expected to recommend is the opening of talks on Iraq's future with Syria and Iran, countries the White House has sought to isolate.

»“The failure of the Baghdad initiative is convincing evidence that a military solution is not going to work,” said Larry Diamond, a former adviser to the US-led occupation authority in Baghdad who also advised the ISG. “We should be talking to neighbouring Arab states and we think we should be talking to Iran — to broker the compromises which might save the situation,” Mr Diamond told the Guardian.

»Other options being considered are a redeployment of forces to “super-bases” in Iraq or bases outside the country, pressuring the Baghdad government to find a fairer way of sharing Iraq's oil wealth to give Sunnis a better deal, and even the partitioning of the country into autonomous Kurdish, Sunni and Shia regions — an idea the White House has dismissed as a “non-starter”.

»British diplomats, including Dominic Asquith, the ambassador to Iraq, and Sir David Manning, ambassador to Washington, have contributed to the ISG.

»The Foreign Office is backing the ISG proposal to engage with Iran and Syria. “We are encouraging them to go with that,” a Foreign Office source said.»

Rien ne semble montrer que ces deux groupes (l’ISG et le Foreign Office) aient le soutien explicite de Bush et de Blair, qui continuent à plaider vaguement le maintien de leurs forces aussi longtemps que la situation le nécessitera. Tout montre au contraire qu’ils agissent comme deux structures parallèles, mettant au point leur propre politique qu’ils tenteront ensuite d’imposer à leurs dirigeants.

Mis en ligne le 21 octobre 2006 à 08H37