Le Caire: comment sauver la “révolution”?

Le Caire: comment sauver la “révolution”?

Dans The Independent du 2 avril 2011, Patrick Cockburn décrit une manifestation de protestation, vendredi au Caire. Le but des manifestants était de montrer leur inquiétude, voire leur alarme concernant ce qu’ils estiment être une menace contre les acquis de la “révolution” de février.

La situation telle qu’elle est décrite en Egypte est qualifiée de “fluide”. Il est évident que les buts radicaux des “révolutionnaires” n’ont pas été rencontrés par les militaires, mais il est tout aussi évident que ces militaires ne veulent nullement s’opposer aux mouvements de protestation par crainte d’événements violents. Il en résulte une situation d’incertitude, de fragilité ; si l’on ne peut parler de “révolution” accomplie, on ne peut pas plus parler de “contre-révolution” affirmée. (Au reste, la “révolution” n'ayant jamais été accomplie, il ne peut être question de “contre-révolution”.)… Cet état intermédiaire de désordre latent est, finalement, le meilleur garant du maintien de la tension au sein de la chaîne crisique. C’est, à notre sens, la meilleure situation possible pour faire évoluer les choses en profondeur ; l’essentiel est l’érosion du système Moubarak, entièrement inféodé aux USA, et c’est effectivement le résultat souterrain de l’évolution actuelle parce que l'armée, elle-même divisée, n'a en général aucun désir de perpétuer ou de rétablir ce système.

«Demonstrators fearful that the tide of revolution is on the ebb in Egypt staged a mass protest in Tahrir Square in Cairo yesterday to demand that a less authoritarian form of government be introduced. The protesters appeared to sense that political power is drifting away from them and the old system is reasserting itself as they gathered after Friday prayers beside the blackened hulk of the old headquarters of the ruling National Democratic Party (NDP).

»“I am worried that there are so many forces against the revolution, mainly in the army,” said Ahmed Maher, a 30-year-old civil engineer and coordinator of the 6 April Movement, a group that played a crucial role in organising the street protests that ended the rule of President Hosni Mubarak. He added: “By demonstrating, we are showing our anger at what is happening.” Egypt's revolution is uncertain of its identity, or even if it really was a revolution. Mr Maher would prefer radical change but does not expect it. “I realise the revolution will not bring a new Egypt,” he says. “We will have better people in charge and perhaps less corruption, but not a different system.”

»Mr Maher, who was jailed five times and tortured severely under the old regime, does not seem too downcast at present frustrations. The shadowy Supreme Council of the Armed Forces had failed to invite any of the radical groups to a dialogue, but he thought the political situation was fluid and the army would give ground under pressure. He said: “They don't want a clash with us.”

»There is a tug of war between the army and protesters over the degree to which the old authoritarian state should be dismantled. The army promises that the old Emergency Law will be abolished but not yet. Thousands of prisoners have been freed but nobody knows how many are still in jail. There are still 10-minute trials by military tribunals handing out long sentences. The media may be more free, but criticism of the military for torturing suspects remains a red line.

»After all, it was the army commanders, not protesters, who forced President Mubarak to stand down. “What began as a revolution ended up as a military coup,” says one foreign observer. “The generals sacrificed the regime to save the state.” One change that may be irreversible is that Egyptians, certainly in Cairo, are now politicised where they were once apathetic. Officials are no longer entirely above the law, nor are police officers who are accused of killing or injuring protesters…»

dedefensa.org