Le “coup” de Petraeus

Le “coup” de Petraeus

Il y a un intéressant petit commentaire (le 23 juin 2010) de Thomas P.M. Barnett, de Esquire, sur la mise à pied de McChrystal et la nomination de Petraeus en Afghanistan. Barnett rappelle, comme nous l’avions fait nous-mêmes, le précédent de l’amiral Fallon, démissionnaire dans les mêmes circonstances et également remplacé par Petraeus, après un article d’Esquire, justement. («Well, well, well — where have we seen this before? The indiscreet U.S. commander whose tongue digs his own grave. The stunning resignation submitted within hours of the magazine's online posting of the story. And General David Petraeus — yet again — as the go-to choice as America's turnaround specialist.»)

Mais Barnett, qui fut l’auteur de l’interview de Fallon, voit des différences considérables entre les suites de ces deux affaires en apparence assez similaires. Il voit dix enseignements. Nous en avons sélectionné cinq, qui nous intéresse particulièrement.

[…]

«2. But the Pentagon now holds the keys to the castle.

»Obama may have put his foot down, but he's making a serious gamble in anointing Petraeus, much like Bush did after Fallon's resignation. The president needed to make McChrystal's sacking seem like an upgrade in gravitas, which it is when the upgrade is to the boss of Central Command. Just don't forget that Petraeus is the only general capable of making Afghanistan his war, and not Obama's.

»3. Petraeus is truly untouchable.

»Understand this, too: Whatever the general wants, the general will get. After firing his Afghanistan commander twice in just thirteen months, Obama has no choice. Petraeus now outranks every administration player on Afghanistan. Save Obama — officially, at least.

[…]

»6. Obama's 2012 campaign could be all about war.

»If Petraeus says the strategy needs more time, then Obama's running for re-election as a wartime president. Period. There's just no way that Obama can overrule Petraeus on this one without wounding himself politically. McChrystal had been signaling that Obama's summer 2011 deadline to begin withdrawing combat troops was too optimistic. Expect Petraeus to press that case — however subtly — from day one.

»7. Two jobs? One job? Same thing.

»No matter what anyone says in the confirmation hearings, it won't matter if Petraeus steps down from CENTCOM or becomes The General with Two Hats. Nobody who would step in at CENTCOM could overshadow Petraeus, so that kind of a choice is unimportant in many respects. But given the general's recent health issues, it's hard to believe a replacement won't be picked. I'm betting on General James Mattis, whom I profiled in detail a couple years ago.

[…]

»9. The “Draft Dave” presidential run could live on, too.

»Can Petraeus pull off his second COIN miracle? If he does, and if it's perceived as such prior to the GOP convention in the summer of 2012, then I guarantee you there will be a groundswell of delegate support to make him the Republican candidate — assuming he gets out of uniform in time.»

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