Le Hezbollah avait laissé une bombe à retardement

Six mois plus tard, la bataille contre le Hezbollah plonge Israël dans une nouvelle crise. Le même jour, deux nouvelles y contribuent grandement, dont l’une directement liée aux considérables difficultés d’Israël lors de la “deuxième guerre du Liban” de l’été 2006, et toutes deux affectant une direction israélienne extrêmement affaiblie par ce revers :

• L’annonce de la démission du chef d’état-major général, le général Halutz. Selon le Guardian:

«Gen Halutz’s surprise resignation came after several internal Israeli military inquiries into the conduct of the war but before the major investigation into the conflict, known as the Winograd Commission, delivers its interim findings, which are due in February or March.

»In his resignation letter Gen Halutz spoke of taking “responsibility” but he pointedly admitted no failures or mistakes in the conduct of the war in Lebanon. In the letter, addressed to the prime minister, Ehud Olmert, he said: “In order to lead, we must carry out our responsibility. Therefore, after completing my mission for now, I wish to inform you that I plan to end my role as chief of staff immediately.”

»Ze’ev Schiff, Israel’s most respected military analyst, said he was surprised by the timing of the resignation. “My feeling is that he wanted to dictate the way and date of his resignation and not to wait for others to do it for him,” he said. He said Gen Halutz, an air force officer, had overseen an unprecedented process of review and internal inquiry since the war.

• L’annonce de l’ouverture d’une enquête sur un scandale où est impliqué le Premier ministre Olmert.

«The prime minister is also facing his own troubles. Just hours before Gen Halutz resigned, Israel’s state prosecutor said it was beginning a criminal investigation into Mr Olmert over his involvement in the sale of a stake in an Israeli bank when he was finance minister. At least two other political cases involving Mr Olmert are being studied and may yet lead to more criminal investigations. Israeli prime ministers have been investigated while in office in the past without being charged with any crime, but many say that while Mr Olmert might survive the fallout of the Lebanon war, he may be brought down by political scandal. “Olmert’s problem is not the chief of staff,” said Mr Schiff, the analyst. “His problem is the other investigations.”»

D’un point de vue plus général, cette crise politique relancée en Israël rend beaucoup plus incertaine la perspective d’une frappe israélienne contre l’Iran, ou d’une participation israélienne à une telle frappe initiée par les USA. Il paraît difficile d’envisager une telle opération, qui demande un soutien unanime et une direction forte, alors que le pays se trouve aussi fortement affaibli. On observera ainsi qu’en une journée, on peut collecter quatre informations, dont deux sont favorables à la perspective d’une frappe (celle sur l’amiral Fallon, celle sur l’Arabie Saoudite), et deux défavorables (outre ce texte-ci, la nouvelle concernant les porte-avions de l’U.S. Navy).

Mis en ligne le 17 janvier 2007 à 16H52