Le Japon au centre du jeu

Perdues au fond d’un long article du Sunday Times de Londres de ce jour, quelques intéressantes réflexions sur l’attitude du Japon à la suite de la “crise” nord-coréenne. C’est à cette lumière qu’on peut rappeler les observations faites il y a deux jours sur ce même “Bloc- Notes”, à partir de la thèse du journaliste Donald Kirk. La conclusion à terme est que cette “crise” nord-coréenne risque surtout d’accélérer l’évolution vers la remilitarisation agressive du Japon et vers un antagonisme entre le Japon et les puissances asiatiques continentales (Corée du Sud voire Corée réunifiée, et Chine).

On observera combien l’absurde et vaniteuse politique extérieure des USA porterait de responsabilités dans une telle évolution. Politique de force lancée pour dominer le monde et empêcher l’émergence de puissances militaires rivales, elle conduirait en fait à l’émergence de plusieurs puissances militaires rivales, dont certaines (le Japon) à son instigation directe…

« North Korea’s aggressive behaviour and a record of kidnapping Japanese citizens have created new willpower among politicians in Tokyo to strengthen their military forces. To China, Japan’s wartime adversary, that signals a worrying change in the strategic equation. Nationalism in both countries is on the rise. Relations between the two are at their worst for decades.

» One scenario is that Japan abandons its pacifist doctrine and becomes a nuclear weapons power. “The Japanese people are very angry and very worried and, right now, they will accept any government plan for the military,” said Tetsuo Maeda, professor of defence studies at Tokyo International University.

» The mood favours the ascent of Shinzo Abe, Japan’s hawkish chief cabinet secretary, the man most likely to take over from Junichiro Koizumi, the prime minister, who steps down in September. “He will be far more hardline on Pyongyang and I’m firmly of the opinion that he intends to make Japan into a nuclear power,” Maeda said.

» The government is already committed to installing defensive Pac-3 Patriot missiles in co-operation with the Americans. But radical opinion in Japan has been fortified by Kim’s adventures.

» “The vast majority of Japanese agree that we need to be able to carry out first strikes,” said Yoichi Shimada, a professor of international relations at Fukui Prefectural University. “I spoke to Mr Abe earlier this week and he shares my opinion that for Japan, the most important step would be for Japan to have an offensive missile capability.”

» Such talk causes severe concern to Washington, which has sheltered Japan under the umbrella of its nuclear arsenal since forging a security alliance after the second world war.

» Divisions within the Bush administration — which even sympathisers concede have paralysed its nuclear diplomacy towards the North — also served to undermine Japanese confidence in America, as have the well-documented failings of American intelligence. Dan Goure of the Lexington Institute, a think tank with ties to the Pentagon, says: “There’s no human intelligence in North Korea. Zero. Zippo. It’s like looking at your neighbour’s house with a pair of binoculars — and they’ve got their blinds shut.” »

Mis en ligne le 9 juillet 2006 à 09H14