Le magicien envoûté

Les Américains débattent pour savoir quand et comment quitter l’Irak, — contre le seul GW Bush, de plus en plus isolé dans sa volonté d’y rester jusqu’à la victoire finale. Les populations arabes de la région, qui voient les USA comme des envahisseurs, sont furieuses et ne songent qu’à une chose : voir les Américains partir. La roi Abdallah d’Arabie a qualifié la présence US en Irak d’“illégale” et d’“illégitime”. On pourrait alors croire que des forces puissantes sont à l’œuvre pour aboutir effectivement à un retrait US.

Hussein Agha, un chercheur de l’université d’Oxford, estime (dans le Guardian, du 25 avril) que c’est le contraire. Agha montre que les principaux acteurs de la région, même lorsqu’ils dénoncent l’occupation US (l’Arabie) s’en servent pour leurs propres desseins et pour leurs intérêts stratégiques. Agha montre assez aisément que les régimes modérés arabes, quelle que soit leur rhétorique officielle, s’arrangent effectivement de la présence US qui empêche tel ou tel acteur, notamment l’Iran, d’affirmer une complète prépondérance sur la région. Et puis il y a les autres, dont les positions sont parfois paradoxales.

Voici quelques-unes des affirmations de Agha :

«Paradoxically, the competing axis of so-called rogue states made up of Syria and Iran also wants the US to stay. So long as America remains mired in Iraq's quicksand, they think, it will be difficult for it to embark on a similar adventure nearby. This is true not only politically — the quagmire standing as a stark reminder of the invasion's failure — but also militarily: US capabilities will remain stretched for as long as the occupation continues.

»Moreover, American forces in Iraq present relatively soft targets for retaliation in case Iran or Syria is attacked. In short, whether or not Syria and Iran are correct in their calculations, the occupation of Iraq is seen as the most effective insurance policy against a possible US attack against them.

(...)

»Inside Iraq, this is a period of consolidation for most political groups. They are building up their political and military capabilities, cultivating and forging alliances, clarifying political objectives and preparing for impending challenges. It is not the moment for all-out confrontation. No group has the confidence or capacity decisively to confront rivals within its own community or across communal lines. Equally, no party is genuinely interested in a serious process of national reconciliation when they feel they can improve their position later on. A continued American presence is consistent with both concerns - it can keep clashes manageable and be used to postpone the need for serious political engagement.

»Shias in government would like the US to stay long enough for them to tighten their grip on the levers of state power and build a loyal military. Those Shias who are not in power would like them to stay long enough to avoid a premature showdown with their rivals. Militant Shia groups can simultaneously blame the occupation forces for their community's plight and attack them to mobilise further support. Pro-Iranian Shias, meanwhile, retaliate against anti-Iranian US moves with attacks on Americans in Iraq.

»Al-Qaida and its affiliates arguably benefit most from the occupation. They established themselves, brought in recruits, sustained operations against the Americans and expanded. The last thing they want is for the Americans to leave and deny them targets and motivation for new members. Other Sunni armed groups need the Americans for similar reasons and for protection against Shias. For Sunni politicians, the occupation prevents a total Shia takeover of state institutions and helps increase their influence.»

Agha termine par le plus étrange des constats, — mais non, pas si étrange que cela, plutôt conforme à la réalité de l’évolution de la situation. La chose n’est étrange que pour ceux qui continuent à psalmodier l’hymne à la gloire de la puissance invincible de l’américanisme. Ce constat se résume par un vieux dicton arabe, dot la signification doit être à peu près ceci : “le magicien a été envoûté par sa propre magie” : «In this grim picture, the Americans appear the least sure and most confused. With unattainable objectives, wobbly plans, changing tactics, shifting alliances and ever-increasing casualties, it is not clear any longer what they want or how they are going to achieve it. By setting themselves up to be manipulated, they give credence to an old Arab saying: the magic has taken over the magician.»

Mis en ligne le 28 avril 2007 à 10H44