Le verdict de Chatham House : aujourd’hui, c’est l’Iran qui domine le Moyen Orient

Le très fameux institut britannique RIIA (Royal Institute of International Affairs) ; locataire du non moins prestigieux Chtham House, publie un rapport dévastateur pour les Occidentaux, les USA en particulier. Il montre comment l’Iran, profitant naturellement des erreurs sans nombre de la politique américaniste, occupe aujourd’hui une place dominante en Irak et, plus largement, dans toute la région.

Le rapport décrit la situation présente d’une analyse rapide où il semble que les USA n’aient fait, “objectivement”, qu’agir pour le compte de l’Iran : « There is little doubt that Iran has been the chief beneficiary of the War on Terror in the Middle East. The United States, with coalition support, has eliminated two of Iran’s regional rival governments — the Taliban in Afghanistan in November 2001 and Saddam Hussein’s regime in Iraq in April 2003 — but has failed to replace either with coherent and stable political structures. »

Aujourd’hui, l’Iran occupe la place centrale dans la région, menacé par les USA mais dans une étrange situation pour les Américains, avec la menace planant sur le sort de leur corps expéditionnaire en Irak : « If the US were to attack Iran, then it would do so knowing that its forces in Iraq would be at an even greater risk than they currently are. Any US attack against Tehran would expose the US presence in Iraq to retaliatory destabilising interventions by Tehran. »

Mais l’aspect le plus intéressant du rapport pourrait être méthodologique, comme témoignage de la rapidité extraordinaire de l’évolution de la situation dans la région. Les auteurs mentionnent cela, montrant qu’ils sont passés de l’analyse d’une situation nationale largement délimitée à la situation d’une nation exerçant soudain une influence considérable dans la région.

« The Chatham House experts wrote that their original report was to analyse Iran's regional influence in the context of international efforts to prevent it developing nuclear weapons. Its scope was also to encompass the complexities of Iranian domestic politics and the clash between the “apocalyptic world-view” of President Ahmadinejad and the more pragmatic, conservative Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.

« But as the conflicts grew in Gaza and the Lebanon, where Iran is the key backer of the Hezbollah militia, the 50-page report was expanded to consider all other inter-connected regional crises.

« “A recurring theme is the desire of most states to maintain good relations with Iran or, where the relationship is less strong, to avoid antagonisation or any further deterioration,” the report says. “There exist a variety of reasons for this which have generally been strengthened by the turmoil in Afghanistan, Iraq, Palestine and Lebanon. Iran is in a powerful regional position and its co-operation and positive influence are needed to douse the many fires currently alight. Were Iran to feel seriously threatened by outside forces, it does have the potential to inflame the region yet further.” »

Mis en ligne le 24 août 2006 à 13H54