Les sombres perspectives américanistes de BAE

Dans The Independent, l’un des commentateurs de la rubrique économique du quotidien, Jeremy Warner, met dans sa chronique Outlook d’hier, le destin de BAE en perspective à la suite de la décision US d’ouvrir une enquête. (Décision du département de la justice, officielle depuis le 25 juin.)

Sans s’attacher à la polémique concernant le cas, son appréciation est à la fois éclairée et pessimiste. Warner se place du point de vue de la stratégie de BAE, résolument orientée vers les USA. Il en tire argument pour affirmer que la décision du DoJ place BAE dans une position pire qu’au moment de l’enquête du SFO britannique. BAE est beaucoup plus vulnérable vis-à-vis des autorités US que des autorités britanniques, d’une part à cause de ses ambitions aux USA et de sa faible influence sur les centres de pouvoir aux USA, d’autre part à cause de l’influence beaucoup moins importante de l’Arabie (“allié objectif” de BAE puisque complice dans l’affaire Yamamah) sur le gouvernement US et, surtout, sur la bureaucratie du DoJ (et du Congrès).

En un sens, Warner nous fait réaliser que l’affaire BAE (le scandale BAE-Yamamah) est passée du domaine britannique au domaine américaniste, qu’elle a complètement changé de dimension. Elle échappe aux rapports de complicité que le consortium BAE a toujours eus avec l’establishment londonien et avec l’Arabie. Elle est désormais dans le domaine américaniste où BAE n’a pas que des amis et n’occupe pas une position de force. Warner fait justement allusion à l’influence des concurrents de BAE aux USA (Lockheed Martin, Boeing) qui ont joué un rôle dans la décision de la bureaucratie US d’ouvrir une enquête. Et il fait justement remarquer qu’à Washington, où dominent les groupes de pression et les bureaucraties, où l’influence du gouvernement central est faible, il sera très difficile sinon impossible de stopper le processus d’enquête. Le DoJ et le Congrès ne sont pas le SFO.

«When Britain's Serious Fraud Office abandoned its investigation of alleged bribery in connection with the Al-Yamamah arms deal, it was generally thought to be good news for the contractor, BAE Systems. A dark cloud seemed to have been removed, leaving the company free to pursue its future without the whiff of corruption which has haunted it all these years. There was also to be a dividend from the Saudis in the form of the second phase of the Al-Yamamah contract, reportedly worth in excess of £20bn to BAE.

»As it turns out, the decision has neither removed the allegations of corruption nor yet delivered the second phase of the contract. Indeed, with the US Justice Department now wading into the mire, the company's position is arguably worse than it was when the SFO investigation was still going on.

»The SFO probe was close to conclusion at the time it was abandoned, ostensibly for reasons of national security. Whatever the outcome might have been - be it a prosecution or a judgement of no case to answer - it could hardly have been worse than being immersed in the icy waters of the US Justice Department. There is no telling how long this process might go on or what the eventual penalties might be.

»BAE's whole strategy is based around expansion in the US. Contracts and acquisitions are now likely to be put on hold as the US authorities attempt to get to the bottom of whether anti-corruption laws were broken. Never mind the cost in terms of lost business opportunities, any directly imposed penalties are also likely to be much harsher than those which would have been meted out in Britain.

»BAE Systems hoped to bury the past. Instead, there now appears to be no stopping it being exhumed. With so much to lose in the US, BAE has no option but to co-operate fully. What stance the UK and Saudi governments choose to adopt is anyone's guess.

(…)

»The SFO continues to investigate similar allegations made in connection with a number of other overseas defence deals in which BAE was the prime contractor. By threatening to cut off diplomatic ties, including the flow of anti-terrorist intelligence, the Saudis were able to blackmail the British authorities into dropping their investigations.

»It seems doubtful that the US Justice Department will be similarly persuaded. National jurisdiction no longer seems to have much meaning in today's reality of business without borders. Companies that manage to escape the long arm of the law in one country are likely to be held to account for their misdemeanours somewhere else.

»Not that anyone should think US motives are entirely altruistic here. The US Justice Department has been lobbied hard by powerful BAE rivals to take up where the SFO left off, most of them just as guilty in the past of paying commissions for contracts as BAE Systems. What a grubby, dog-eat-dog business the commercial world sometimes is.»

Mis en ligne le 28 juin 2007 à 05H13