Les travaillistes de plus en plus nerveux : que faire d’un Tony qui ne veut pas lâcher la barre du bateau qui sombre ?

Vraiment, les travaillistes sont inquiets. Blair ressemble à un boulet attaché au pied droit et qui les entraîne vers le fond (c’est-à-dire dans les sondages). Tout cela à cause des chouettes relations transatlantiques (cela, pour McCain et les conservateurs). Et Blair veut rester un an de plus. Un calvaire.

…Pire, un insupportable risque électoral. D’où ce commentaire de Polly Toynbee, dans le Guardian aujourd’hui, qui nous parle de l’ambiance, avec ce titre très évocateur, style Royal Navy en péril : « On Labour's sinking ship the mutinous mood grows. »

Extraits.

« The Blair camp admits the party can't take another year of this debilitating internal row while the Tories surge ahead. Yet it won't stop - and the Blairites know it - even if his enemies never speak another word. There is no option for one more peaceful year with Blair, whoever you blame. It won't happen. The choice is another year like this, shipping yet more water in the polls - or pushing him now.

» Remember this: when Thatcher fell she still had a 48% satisfaction rating, yet her time was up and most of her party knew it; Blair's satisfaction rating is 23%. There is a time and tide in politics, and his people say Blair well knows his time is up too. Yet still he can't let go.

» Many observers find the party's mood suddenly shifting. Before, a putsch was unthinkably dangerous; there were fears that it would bitterly divide the party. Now, many see that there are so few inside the Blair camp that it would collapse at first shove. Charlie Falconer and Tessa Jowell, his most ardent admirers, manned plentiful studios alone this weekend, but that gave the game away: there are not many willing defenders left. Not even John Reid stepped up. No doubt returning cabinet ministers will soon be dragooned to the cause - but of their own free will their silence was eloquent. Reid and the rest have to make up their minds; either way it will all be over in a year. Do they want to be bridge-builders for Labour's survival or scatter landmines to make sure Brown fails? Another year of Byers-type attacks against ‘Red’ Gordon will do most of the Tories' campaigning work for them.

» So now the party has to decide. Is it better to ride out another terrible year? Or will that year see Labour fall so irretrievably far behind in public trust that pushing Blair is the lesser risk? The solid core of MPs and activists are not passionate Blairites or Brownites; they want Labour to keep winning. Amid a desperate search for the least worst option, opinion is growing that now, before the conference, delegations of ministers and MPs should quietly but forcefully tell him to go, or risk worse consequences. »

Curieux, non ? Ici (chez les conservateurs), on se précipite avec enthousiasme sous le parapluie américain pour gagner les prochaines élections. Là, chez les travaillistes, on a découvert que le parapluie est percé et on pédale avec zèle pour éloigner celui qui l’a ouvert démesurément, — pour gagner les prochaines élections, indeed. Démocratiquement curieux, indeed.

Mis en ligne le 29 août 2006 à 10H48