L’étrange “reprise” aux USA

L’étrange “reprise” aux USA

On oppose souvent, ces derniers temps, la situation aux USA, soi-disant en pleine reprise, à la situation catastrophique en Europe. Le site WSWS.org fait un bon résumé de la réalité US, à la lumière de récentes nouvelles statistiques.

Le lien est http://www.wsws.org/articles/2010/may2010/econ-m21.shtml.

«Two sets of US economic data released Thursday poured more cold water on recent claims of an “economic recovery” at least as far as the conditions of broad sections of the American population are concerned. […]

»The Conference Board, based in New York, issued its influential Leading Economic Index (LEI) for April on Thursday morning, which showed a slight decrease, of 0.1 percent, the first monthly decline since March 2009. The biggest negative contributors were a sharp decline in building permits, supplier deliveries (vendor performance), consumer confidence, and manufacturers’ new orders for consumer goods. The March 2010 LEI increase has also been revised downward, from 1.4 to 1.3 percent.

»The Commerce Department reported earlier in the week that building permits fell 11.5 percent in April, to the lowest level in six months. This foreshadows a new slowdown in residential construction.

»The decline in the Conference Board LEI had not been anticipated on Wall Street, helping to drive down share prices Thursday morning. Notes RTTNews, “The decrease came as a surprise to economists, who had expected the index to increase by 0.2 percent.” Overall, comments Bloomberg Businessweek, “A slump in building permits, little letup in firings and retreating stock prices highlight risks to the strength of the recovery as concern over the European debt crisis mounts.”

»A day earlier, the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) reported that a record share of US houses were in foreclosure, 4.63 percent, in the first quarter of 2010 “as job losses caused homebuyers to fall behind on monthly payments” (Bloomberg Businessweek). The MBA reported the combined share of foreclosures and mortgage delinquencies was 14 percent, or about one in every seven US mortgages, a staggering total.

» “Job losses have strained budgets, making it difficult for households to pay monthly bills,” Jay Brinkmann, the MBA’s chief economist, told Bloomberg Businessweek. “The unemployment rate is the major factor driving the numbers,” Brinkmann said. “We’re seeing the states with the biggest unemployment problem, like Ohio, Illinois and Michigan, showing the biggest increases.”

»In other words, there is no recovery for the working population in the US.

»This reality was underscored by another unexpected statistic announced Thursday morning, the jump in weekly jobless claims in the US by 25,000 last week, to 471,000, “defying predictions” of economists they would decline by 4,000. The previous week’s jobless claim total was also revised upward a slight amount.

»The Wall Street Journal commented, “In a troubling sign for the U.S. labor market, the number of workers filing new claims for unemployment benefits unexpectedly surged last week to wipe out most of the recent declines.”...»

“Vieux Rebelle”