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9318 janvier 2003 — Dans l'échiquier général autour de l'Irak et autour de la guerre partout annoncée contre l'Irak, La Turquie est une inconnue de taille, et une inconnue somme toute inattendue si l'on se réfère aux habitudes des relations de ce pays avec les USA. Il ne fait désormais plus aucun doute que l'arrivée au pouvoir du parti islamiste modéré et le départ de l'ancienne classe politique s'apparente bien plus à un changement de régime qu'à un changement de majorité. C'est un régime de complète corruption, tant vénale que psychologique, qui a été balayé ; en ce sens, le résultat des dernières élections turques est une réelle défaite de Washington, comme le sont les résultats des récentes élections allemandes, brésiliennes, sud-coréennes, etc..
« C'est assez étrange, note une source proche de la Commission européenne, qui entend garder l'anonymat, l'un des arguments des adversaires de l'entrée de la Turquie de l'UE concerne les interférences que ce pays apporterait dans la PESC. Avec la Turquie, disent-ils, tout espoir d'une politique européenne de sécurité autonome est perdu. Mais quand on voit la politique turque sur la question irakienne, mais c'est la politique que devraient avoir les Européens! Combien de pays européens s'en approchent seulement? ». Cette remarque nous semble parfaitement approprié, pour juger du comportement de la Turquie aujourd'hui.
Cette question de la nouveauté de l'équipe politique est importante pour la crise irakienne actuellement, elle est importante aussi pour le futur des relations de l'Europe avec la Turquie, et pour toutes les questions concernant ce pays stratégique essentiel qu'est la Turquie. Elle est importante pour Israël particulièrement, qui avait appuyé sa politique d'affirmation et d'intervention depuis l'arrivée de Sharon sur un partenariat de plus en plus affirmé avec la Turquie. Cela valait du temps de l'ancien régime corrompu ; et maintenant ?
Nous reproduisons ci-dessous, avec les précautions d'usage, un article du 6 janvier 2003 de l'hebdomadaire Defense News sur cette question de la position de la Turquie, vis-à-vis du problème particulier de l'Irak. (Le site de l'hebdomadaire est accessible à http://www.defensenews.com.) Il est intéressant d'observer, selon ce que nous dit l'article, que la Turquie est le seul pays de la région qui ne se soit pas alignée sur la position américaine.
January 06, 2003
By Umit Enginsoy, Washington, and Burak Ege Bekdil, Ankara
Turkey’s moves to delay a final decision on its level of cooperation with the United States in possible military action against Iraq is complicating U.S. war plans and might have adverse implications on ties between Ankara and its closest Western partner.
Turkey’s security concerns about a post-Saddam Hussein environment in Iraq, and a dispute with Washington on how Ankara’s war-related economic losses could be compensated, have prevented a deal on military cooperation.
Some analysts suggest that Turkey’s hesitation is testing the patience of U.S. President George W. Bush and, notably, the Pentagon’s civilian leaders at a time when Washington wants to complete its military preparations for an intervention if efforts to disarm Iraq peacefully fail.
Turkish Prime Minister Abdullah Gul made clear that the United States should not expect a quick decision from its key NATO ally, telling reporters Dec. 31, “They [the Americans] say, ‘Decide immediately,’ but we say, ‘Even you haven’t decided yet, so why do you expect us to rush?’ “
Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Gul’s party boss as leader of Turkey’s ruling Justice and Development Party, also said Turkey would “hold back from concrete promises of support for a war on Iraq until initial results of U.N. arms inspections are clear.”
And Turkey’s top security panel of government and military leaders, the National Security Council, issued a statement after a Dec. 27 meeting calling “for a solution of the problem through peaceful means.”
“We’re continuing talks with Turkey, and there are a number of things that need to be clarified,” one U.S. State Department official said.
Preparing for War
The United States has requested the right to use Turkish air bases, ports and military facilities in a possible war with Iraq. As in the case of the 1991 Persian Gulf War, Turkish officials have hinted that the United States could be allowed to make use of air bases and Turkish logistical support.
The stickiest issue remains Washington’s demand to use Turkish territory to deploy nearly 80,000 troops, most of whom then would occupy northern Iraq. Turkey is the only friendly country through which U.S. troops could conduct operations into Iraq’s north.
Privately, Turkish officials said they worry that a large U.S. military presence in northern Iraq could end “the Turkish Army’s leverage on Iraqi Kurds,” whom Ankara fears could declare independence from Iraq if Saddam falls.
U.S. and Iraqi Kurdish assurances that this would not be the case so far have not dissipated concerns. Defeating its own Kurdish insurgency in 1999, Turkey fears an independent Kurdish state on its southeastern border again might incite Kurds.
Analysts said time is drawing near for a U.S. decision on war.
“If the United Nations-led efforts for a peaceful solution fail, it seems America would want to intervene before the spring,” said Soner Cagaptay, head of the Turkish program at the Washington Institute for Near Eastern Policy, a think tank. “It also seems the United States has received the support of all other countries needed in the region, including Saudi Arabia. So only Turkey is missing in that list, and to avoid military complications, the Americans want to know as soon as possible what exactly the Turks will do.”
“Turkey’s indecision is causing disappointment in the U.S. administration, especially at the Pentagon, and continued Turkish hesitation would be perceived here as a negative reply,” said Bulent Aliriza, head of Turkish studies at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, another Washington-based think tank. “If Turkey’s response falls short of Washington’s expectations, and if the Iraq operation falters because of lack of Turkish cooperation, there would be a price it would pay in terms of its relationship with the United States, its closest ally.”
As part of intensive talks, two senior U.S. officials visited Ankara Dec. 26-28 to discuss planned U.S. economic and military assistance in return for Turkey’s Iraq support. But the results were sketchy.
“On the economic assistance package, we’ve made some good progress. We’ve established an agreement on the overall structure of the assistance,” John Taylor, the U.S. Treasury Department’s undersecretary for international affairs, told reporters after talks in the Turkish capital.
However, Turkish officials said Ankara is demanding around $25 billion in direct and indirect support, while U.S. sources said Washington is considering a package worth about $5 billion in five years. Having received tens of billions of dollars in loans from the International Monetary Fund after facing in 2001 its worst financial crisis since World War II, Turkey fears a war in Iraq will further cripple its fledgling recovery.
As part of the planned assistance package, Turkey also wants partial forgiveness of its nearly $5 billion military sales debt to the United States and transfer of military equipment. U.S. response to those requests is not yet clear.
Talks on Turkish support for any operations against Iraq and U.S. assistance for Turkey will continue this month. U.S. Air Force Gen. Richard Myers, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, is expected to visit Turkey later this month, sources from both sides said.
“We must negotiate on a strategic axis rather than a tactical one. We must not leave one single dubious point,” said one senior Turkish Foreign Ministry official. “We have not forgotten Washington’s vital support in numerous critical matters over the past two decades, but at the same time, we must clearly see the future in this part of the world.”
The same official said U.S. assurances do not satisfy Turkey.
“Only a few weeks before a crucial U.N. decision on arms inspections, we still don’t know what level of U.S. assistance we may get in return for what level of Turkish support,” the official said.
Chief U.N. arms inspector Hans Blix is scheduled to present a report to the U.N. Security Council Jan. 27 declaring the level of Iraq’s compliance to a U.N. order to eliminate Baghdad’s suspected weapons of mass destruction.
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