L’“intéressante soirée” de Steve C. Clemons

Pour un rapide premier commentaire éclairé, un “point de vue de Washington” sans parti-pris et très politique, nous recommandons la petite note de Steve C. Clemons, du 3 janvier. Voici les extraits les plus significatifs, d’où il ressort notamment ces trois points:

• Les trois premiers démocrates restent en piste et rien n’est joué de ce côté. D'une part la victoire d'Obama n'est pas décisive, d'autre part Edwards et Clinton ont tous deux le potentiel de s'affirmer selon les circonstances et leurs propres fortunes.

• Côté républicain, Clemons a été impressionné par Huckabee (un peu) et par McCain (beaucoup).

• Concernant Ron Paul, Clemons estime qu’il a reçu 10% des suffrages, ce qu’il juge «extrêmement impressionnant dans les structures des caucus de l’Iowa»

Clemons :

«Obama probably got the lion's share of caucus goers who abandoned Dodd, Biden, Richardson, and Kucinich. That explains the 6-7% jump in his estimated take from the polls. Obama won. . .but he got an assist from other Dems.

»The bad news for Obama is that – setting aside Edwards – this may be the “as good as it gets” number. He drew the votes that went to the second tier; he drew dissident Republicans; and he drew a lot of Independents – and while he won, it wasn't stunning.

»What was surprising was the fact that Edwards has legs. He really did well in Iowa and kept the entire race competitive. I don't know what waits ahead in New Hampshire, Nevada, and South Carolina – but Edwards is still in the game, at least for a bit.

»Hillary Clinton is in for a marathon – and while she came in third – she's still very much alive. As Donna Brazile said tonight, her campaign can easily push the “reset button” and ‘possibly’ perform well elsewhere.

(…)

»So Obama wins on the Dem side – but the real truth is, he didn't win definitively, and Edwards and Clinton have chances ahead to change the outcome. So, no closure here.

»On the Republican side, Huckabee really performed well – and Romney less well. But I sense that John McCain is lurking with some real strength ahead.

»I talked to some of the most seasoned Democratic political strategists in the country tonight -- and they fear McCain and relish Huckabee, Guiliani and even Romney as the Republican nominee.

»Even though McCain was somwhere just into double digits tonight in Iowa, they think he has political legs. But on the other hand, Huckabee won. Ron Paul's support did not defect and stayed solid at 10% – extremely impressive in the Iowa caucus structure – and Romney. . .well, not sure what to say. . .he just didn't perform well in the state he believed was essential.»

Mis en ligne le 4 janvier 2008 à 14H31