L’Iran est-il en train de gagner ?

L’Iran est-il en train de gagner ?

Kaveh L. Afrasiabi, universitaire et auteur d’origine iranienne enseignant aux USA, est l’un des meilleurs spécialiste des affaires iraniennes et moyenne orientale du monde des experts US.

Il analyse la crise égyptienne du point de vue de l’Iran et favorise l’appréciation de ce pays selon laquelle cette crise va provoquer de profonds bouleversements qui lui seront favorables. D’autre part, ces bouleversements, qui pourraient conduire à une Egypte plus démocratique, pourraient à leur tour susciter des conséquences en Iran, en conduisant l’actuel régime vers une situation elle-même plus démocratique. De ce point de vue-là, l’Iran serait alors doublement gagnant, selon l'appréciation de Afrasiabi.

«Expectations are high that Egypt is “about to exit the American orbit after decades of servitude and shift its orientation away from the West toward independent regional players such as Syria and Iran”, a Tehran commentator has written. “There are profound geopolitical ramifications nested in the Egyptian uprising and this could spell the end of America’s ‘moment’ in the Middle East that has lasted since World War II and experienced its first setback in Iran’s revolution,” a Tehran University political science professor says. “This would be the second setback and because of Egypt's pivotal role in the Arab world, we are likely to witness a cascading effect even in the Persian Gulf region dominated by oil sheikdoms.”

»Speaking of comparisons between Iran and Egypt, a smarter Mubarak may have adopted a lesson from the experience of the shah, whose futile attempts at installing a military government, curfews and showcasing his tanks in the streets of Tehran enraged rather then subdued the population, allowed soldiers to fraternize with protesters and thus rendered ineffective the embattled regime's show of force. […]

»…Unlike Iran's military's intense loyalty to the shah, the Egyptian army has a history of independence that is responsible for this week's announcement that the army refuses to fire on the demonstrators. A major defection of the army to the side of popular uprising is underway in Egypt that was conspicuously absent in Iran. […]

»Still, we can safely assume that the emergence of a democratic polity in Egypt would implicate Cairo in a more independent foreign policy approach that would not align with US and/or Israeli interests all the time. This alone counts for a net gain for Iran, which thanks to the crisis in the Arab world is now feeling reduced pressure from the West in the standoff over its nuclear program.

»Anticipating a “long crisis” with the potential for changes in the rest of Arab world, many policy experts in Iran are hopeful that in 2011 at least Iran will harvest the windfall of Arab revolt and enhance its position in the turbulent region. “The revolutionary remaking of the Middle East,” as one Tehran daily has put it, has always been Iran's lofty objective and now for the first time after 33 years appears to be taking shape in the form of multiple Arab uprisings.

»But, just as Iran may have served as a “reference society” for aspects of discontented Egyptians seeking a regime change from below, a future democratic Egypt can also influence, by inspiring Iranians to intensify their efforts for the democratization of the Islamic Republic. This possibility is already reflected in a statement by a leading Iranian opposition figure, Mir Hussain Mousavi, who has tried to take credit for the Egyptian popular upsurge by drawing attention to the mass protests that followed the controversial presidential elections in Iran in June 2009.

»Quite possibly, Iran's rulers will respond to the democratic yearnings in the region by expanding the scope of political freedoms in the near future. In other words - and optimistically speaking - current developments in the Arab world are good news for Iran's prospects of relaxing existing limitations and increasing the tolerance of dissent.»

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