L’opinion iranienne non-conforme

Le sondage Zogby que présente Jim Lobe dans sa chronique du jour, sur Antiwar.com, constitue un élément important dans la crise iranienne, et surtout pour la cohésion des pays occidentaux.

Le sondage rend compte d’une opinion iranienne extrêmement radicalisée, à la fois anti-israélienne et anti-américaniste, surtout chez les jeunes. Jim lobe observe notamment ceci :

« Some two-thirds of the sample expressed agreement with the assertion that the state of Israel is “illegitimate and should not exist.” Nearly 52 percent said they strongly agreed with that position.

» The survey results, which were released at a time of rising tensions between Iran and both the United States and Israel, was carried out by telephone by 30 Farsi-speaking Iranian interviewers based outside of Iran due to U.S. government regulations that prohibit U.S. research firms from working inside the country. The sample, which consisted of 470 men and 340 women, was drawn from randomly selected adults with land line or mobile phones throughout Iran. Nearly 85 percent of respondents were city-dwellers, and the remainder lived in rural areas.

» Consistent with its findings about popular attitudes toward Israel, the survey suggested that the defiant nationalism and anti-Western views voiced by Ahmadinejad may resonate more deeply with most Iranians than the more zealous U.S. foes of the Islamic Republic have asserted.

» For several years now, neoconservatives and other anti-Iran hawks have argued that younger, urban Iranians, in particular, are strongly pro-U.S., fed up with theocracy, and thus represent the greatest hope, along with presumably disaffected minorities, for “regime change” in Iran. “Iran is a country of young people, most of whom wish to live in freedom and admire the liberal democracies that Ahmadinejad loathes and fears,” wrote Richard Perle, the influential former chair of the Pentagon's Defense Policy Board, just last month in an appeal for a more-confrontational stance toward Iran. His colleague at the neoconservative American Enterprise Institute (AEI), Michael Ledeen, has long claimed that Iranian youth will rise up against the mullahs when they receive political support from Washington.

» The survey results paint a much different picture, however. Asked which of six countries they most admired, just 11.5 percent cited the U.S. (behind Britain and Turkey and just ahead of Germany and Saudi Arabia), while respondents over 50 were twice as likely to cite the U.S. than those between the ages of 18 and 29.

» Asked which of six foreign governments they admired the least, the U.S. was the most cited – by one in four of all respondents, and almost one in three of those aged 18 to 29. »

L’enseignement principal de ce sondage, pour l’équilibre politique des pays occidentaux engagés dans la crise, c’est que l’argument du “changement de régime” est considérablement affaibli. Dans les discussions informelles avec ses trois (les 3.UE) alliés européens, l’administration GW a plaidé (surtout auprès des Britanniques, les plus sensibles à cette perspective) en faveur d’une approche dure (jusqu’à l’option militaire) selon l’argument que celle-ci favoriserait, voire précipiterait un changement de régime. Les arguments US étaient appuyés sur l’affirmation que deux tiers à trois quarts de la population, et plus encore chez les jeunes, étaient opposés au régime, — selon les estimations des néo-conservateurs prises pour argent comptant par la Maison-Blanche avec l’appui de Cheney. Le sondage montre que la proportion réelle est plus proche de l’inverse. (Des sources indépendantes US affirment que des pressions auraient été exercées par l’administration sur le centre d’enquête Zogby pour qu’il ne réalise pas ce sondage, puis qu’il n’en publie pas les résultats. Bien entendu, selon l’interprétation que font ces sources, ce serait le signe de l’inquiétude US quant aux conséquences des résultats du sondage sur la position des 3.UE dans la crise.)

Mis en ligne le 14 juillet 2006 à 15H49