Mystères et perspectives de la prochaine rencontre des USA avec la Syrie et l’Iran, — sous le regard de Cheney, en voyage…

Steve C. Clemons est un commentateur souvent bien informé et avisé des questions de politique extérieure US. Son avis sur les projets de conférence où Américains seraient conduits à parler aux Iraniens, hier soir sur son site The Washington Note, nous donne un éclairage instructif. Clemons rapporte notamment nombre de réactions positives, surtout venues de parlementaires tels que Joe Biden et Chuck Hagel.

Clemons montre un certain optimisme. Son raisonnement est le suivant (avec l’intéressante précision que l’intervention de l’Européen Javier Solana et du Saoudien Prince Bandar a joué un rôle déterminant) :

«This could be a pre-meeting for a true regional conference that draws together all of the key stakeholders in and around Iraq, and that is a key pillar of the Iraq Study Group Report's “New Diplomatic Offensive” proposal.

»Time will tell whether this is meaningless flirtation — or whether this is a carefully crafted “confidence building measure” that could lead to more meaningful engagement between the US and Iran over outstanding issues — and between the US and Syria.

»This has the markings of European and Saudi stage direction.

»This writer has reasons to suspect that European Union High Commissioner for Common Foreign and Security Policy Javier Solana and National Security Advisor to the Saudi King Prince Bandar bin Sultan have been moving chess pieces in consultation with departing US Ambassador to Iraq and incoming US Ambassador to the United Nations Zalmay Khalilzad to make this “neighbors meeting” work.

»This is a necessary but not sufficient first step in re-establishing a new and more stable equilibrium of interests in the Middle East.»

Clemons termine sur une note sibylline qui implique à la fois une explication de la décision US et ses éventuelles limites : «Not to be too snarky, it does seem remarkable that these kind of breakthroughs tend to happen when the Vice President is sidelined or flying off somewhere.»

… tandis que le premier commentaire de lecteur («Posted by ‘Zathras’ at February 27, 2007 06:45 PM») à suivre le texte de Clemons confirme cette perspective en y explicitant la réserve de taille qu'il faut avoir à l'esprit.

«But as Steve suggests, in the era of the co-Presidency decisions in Washington will get made by the last person to have George Bush's ear, usually the Vice President. And since Cheney will not be in Southwest Asia forever steps toward a regional conference might lead to something, or lead nowhere. Most changes of course in foreign policy during any administration occur because everyone understands that they are what the President wants. Right now all we have is tentative movement in a direction that some of his subordinates, plus some foreign governments, favor.»

Mis en ligne le 28 février 2007 à 12H43