Passez muscade ou passez la monnaie, Sarko

Une fois passée l’ivresse de la visite de Sarkozy à Washington, les spéculations se développent pour en savoir précisément l’objet concret, si objet concret il y a eu. Avec elles, apparaissent les revendications. La thèse de Martin Walker, de UPI, dans son analyse du 7 novembre, est qu’il a été demandé à Sarkozy d’agir précisément dans deux domaines: la Turquie et l’Afghanistan (c’est-à-dire, dans ce cas, le Pakistan, pour ce qui concerne les effets de la situation afghane sur la situation pakistanaise).

Walker décrit l’état de la situation à Washington, dans un sens qui rejoint la description de Jim Lobe, c’est-à-dire la perception soudaine d’une crise très profonde affectant l’“arc de crise”, notamment la Turquie et le Pakistan. Walter explique que les Américains voudraient que la France agisse dans deux domaines: avec la Turquie, en réduisant son opposition à l’entrée de la Turquie dans l’UE, pour renforcer le régime contre les poussées islamistes internes; avec le Pakistan, en accentuant son engagement en Afghanistan pour renforcer (bis) le régime Musharraf contre les poussées islamistes internes et externes.

Le ton est clair : l’Amérique est dans une mauvaise position et l’on attend que Sarko mette ses actes en accord avec ses paroles. L’amitié US, cela se paie.

«A coup [in Turkey] is not likely. The Erdogan government has a new election mandate and has delivered the best economic results that Turkey has ever known. Turkey should not be heading for a Pakistan-style crisis, above all if U.S. hopes for Turkey to join the European Union come to fruition. Turkey is a longstanding NATO member; joining the EU would seal the country into the West's two premier prosperity and security clubs.

»The problem is that Bush's other guest this week, France's President Sarkozy, is firmly opposed to Turkey joining the EU. Indeed, it was part of his election platform. He has offered some nebulous alternatives, like a new Mediterranean grouping that would fob Turkey off with membership in an economic club that included Egypt and Libya. Turkey sees this as close to an insult, and a German Marshall Fund opinion poll last month found just 26 percent of Turks who believe that their country will actually join the EU.

»Sarkozy, who has won a reputation as a pro-American with an Atlanticist viewpoint, has not done much to deserve that tag beyond some hard rhetoric on Iran and vague promises about rejoining NATO's military command structure. His Turkish policy is dead set against U.S. policy, and his 700-odd French troops in Afghanistan are kept very safely out of harm's way. All the fighting is being done by U.S., British, Dutch and Canadian forces. As a gesture, French warplanes were instructed to fly air support missions for U.S. troops this week while Sarkozy was in Washington.

»So amid the mutual congratulations this week at improved Franco-American relations, it is important to consider just how far France is prepared to back up its words with real commitments over Turkey and over Afghanistan, which is fast becoming a very serious crisis for the NTO alliance. NATO decided that it would formally take responsibility for security in Afghanistan, and it is failing, largely because the French and Germans and other NATO members will not put their troops on the line.

»And of course, the worse the Afghan situation becomes, the deeper the crisis in neighboring Pakistan, where the military regime signaled its desperation over the weekend by imposing emergency rule. And the crises of Afghanistan, Pakistan and Turkey are not separate; they are all part of the same massive challenge of the struggle in the Islamic world between the forces of modernization and of medievalism, between militant extremism and the rule of law, between authoritarian rule and pluralist, representative government.

Modern Turkey wants to avoid the fate of Pakistan and be on the right side of that struggle, if France would only let it.»

Mis en ligne le 9 novembre 2007 à 22H19