Paul Craig Roberts et la fin du monde

Paul Craig Roberts et la fin du monde

Paul Craig Roberts (PCR), ancien n°2 du département du Trésor sous la présidence de Ronald Reagan, s’est transformé, à mesure que passaient les années et particulièrement depuis 9/11, en un opposant farouche de la politique expansionniste et belliciste du Système, représenté dans ce cas par sa branche “ainée” de l’américanisme. D’abord polémiste itinérant, PCR vient de créer sa propre institution, – The Institute for Political Economy (IPE). A partir de cette base bien renforcée, il vitupère avec constance et fureur, et désormais d'une façon documentée.

En effet, le polémiste sait aussi utiliser son expérience de financier et d’économiste, ce qu’il fait désormais plus souvent depuis la création de l’IPE. Son dernier article, du 8 juillet 2012, est extrêmement long et constitue une analyse en profondeur de la situation économique et sociale des USA, mise en balance avec la politique expansionniste et belliciste dont le coût constitue, par rapport à la situation des USA, un véritable suicide collectif de l’entité américaniste. (PCR est, en effet, un spécialiste des rapports entre la politique politico-militaire des USA, qui nourrit sa verve de polémiste, et la situation économico-sociale des USA, qui fait appel à son expérience de financier et d’économiste.)

Le premier extrait que nous citons ci-dessous concerne la situation intérieure US, – ou disons, l’Amérique-Potemkine par rapport à la vérité de l’Amérique. En effet, l’intérêt du passage est que PCR développe une analyse chiffrée en démontant systématiquement l’apparence-Système des “indicateurs” tendancieux, et l'effet que nous offrent ceux qui se rapprochent plus sérieusement de la réalité… Laquelle réalité nous restitue la vérité d’une Amérique dans le cours d’une Grande Dépression furtive (stealth), largement camouflée, donc à laquelle aucun remède sérieux n’est appliqué. (Nous soulignons en gras, les divers résultats auxquels il aboutit.)

«The annual US budget deficit is adding to the accumulated debt at about $1.5 trillion per year with no prospect of declining. The financial system is broken and requires ongoing bailouts. The economy is busted and has been unable to create high-paying jobs, indeed any jobs. Despite years of population growth, payroll employment as of mid-2012 is the same as in 2005 and substantially below 2008. Yet, the government and financial presstitute media tell us that we have a recovery.

»According to the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, employment in 2011 was only 1 million more than in 2002. As it takes about 150,000 new jobs each month to stay even with population growth, that leaves a decade long job deficit of 15 million jobs.

»The US unemployment and inflation rates are far higher than reported. In previous columns I have explained, based on statistician John Williams’ work (shadowstats.com), the reasons that the government’s headline numbers are serious understatements. The headline (U3) unemployment rate of 8.2% counts no discouraged workers who have given up on finding a job. The government has a second unemployment rate (U6), seldom reported, which includes short-term discouraged workers. That rate is 15%. When the long-term discouraged workers are added in, the current US unemployment rate is 22%, a number closer to the unemployment rate of the Great Depression than to the unemployment rates of postwar recessions.

»Changes in the way inflation is measured have destroyed the Consumer Price Index (CPI) as a measure of the cost of living. The new methodology is substitution based. If the price of an item in the index rises, a lower priced alternative takes its place. In addition, some price rises are labeled quality improvements whether they are or not and thus do not show up in the CPI. People still have to pay the higher price, but it is not counted as inflation. Currently, the substitution-based rate of inflation is about 2%. However, when inflation is measured as the actual cost of living, the rate of inflation is 5%.

»The Misery Index is the sum of the inflation and unemployment rates. The level of the current Misery Index depends on whether the new rigged measures are used, which understate the misery, or the former methodology that accurately measures it. Prior to the November 1980 election, the Misery Index hit 22%, which was one reason for Reagan’s victory over President Carter. Today if we use previous methodology, the Misery Index stands at 27%. But if we use the new rigged methodology, the Misery Index is 10%.

»The understatement of inflation serves to boost Gross Domestic Product (GDP). GDP is calculated in current dollars. To be able to determine whether GDP rose because of price rises or because of increases in real output, GDP is deflated by the CPI. The higher the inflation rate, the less the growth in real output and vice versa. When the substitution based methodology is used to measure inflation, the US economy experienced real growth in the 21st century except for the sharp dip during 2008-2010. However, if the cost-of-living based methodology is used, except for a short period during 2004, the US economy has experienced no real growth since 2000.»

Paul Craig Roberts montre aisément les effets des guerres extérieures (la politique expansionniste et belliciste), dont il estime qu’ils sont pour moitié dans la catastrophique situation du déficit et tout ce qui s’ensuit. La conséquence de cette situation générale constituée d’une impasse générale, c'est-à-dire dans tous les sens où l’on se tourne, c’est, pour PCR, la perspective d’une “fuite en avant” militaire, avec la perspective, en raison d’une puissance d’un poids monstrueux et d’une efficacité complètement atrophiée, de l’utilisation du nucléaire en désespoir de cause et dans l'espoir du triomphe final et apocalyptique… Nous ne connaissions pas la citation de Robert Kristol, inspirateur des neocons, qui termine le texte de Roberts – «What’s the good of nuclear weapons if you can’t use them?», – mais nous observons qu'elle rappelle, perspective encourageante, la phrase de Madeleine Albright à Colin Powell, alors chef d’état-major général, en 1993 : «What’s the point of you saving this superb military for, Colin, if we can't use it?» Etat d'esprit et, pour Albright sous Clinton, on connaît la suite...

«Washington is becoming an isolated and despised element of the world community. Washington has purchased Europe, Canada, Australia, the former Soviet state of Georgia (and almost Ukraine), and Columbia, and continues its effort to purchase the entire world, but sentiment is turning against the rising Gestapo state that has shown itself to be lawless, ruthless, and indifferent, even hostile, to human life and human rights.

»A government, whose military was unable with the help of the UK to occupy Iraq after eight years and was forced to end the conflict by putting the “insurgents” on the US military payroll and to pay them to stop killing American troops, and a government whose military has been unable to subdue a few thousand lightly armed Taliban after 11 years, is over the top when it organizes war against Iran, Russia, and China.

»The only prospect Washington has of prevailing in such an undertaking is first use of nuclear weapons, of catching its demonized opponents off guard by nuking them out of the blue. In other words, by the elimination of life on earth.

»Is this Washington’s program revealed by the neoconservative warmonger, Bill Kristol, who had no shame to ask publicly: “What’s the good of nuclear weapons if you can’t use them?”»

Mis en ligne le 9 juillet 2012 à 12H47