Plus près, tout près des $100

Le prix du pétrole a dépassé $98 le baril dans les premières ventes en Asie ce matin. Encore un effort... On se trouve vraiment tout proche de la barre très symbolique, écrasante de symbole même, des $100 le baril. L’International Herald Tribune présente la chose de cette façon, ce matin, en évaluant tous les effets et les conséquences sur la modification des puissances dans le monde du fait de ces rentrées massives d’argent d'un côté (les producteurs), des dépenses massives de l'autre (les consommateurs):

»As the price of oil surges toward a symbolic milestone of $100 a barrel — hitting above $98 in early Asian trading Wednesday — it is creating new winners and losers across the globe.

»In southern China, high oil prices forced Wang Pui, a trucker, to wait in line 90 minutes the other day to fill up, just to be told he could pump only 25 gallons, as China faced spot shortages of gasoline and diesel fuel.

»When Vladimir Putin was making Russia's bid to be host of the 2014 Winter Olympics last July, he reached into the country's deep pockets, bulging with oil profits, and pledged $12 billion to turn a Black Sea summer resort into a winter-sports paradise. Russia, which was nearly bankrupt a decade ago, won the Games.

»The prospect of triple-digit oil prices has redrawn the economic and political map of the world, challenging some old notions of power. Oil-rich nations are enjoying historic gains and opportunities, while major importers — including China and India, home to a third of the world's population — confront rising economic and social costs.

»Managing this new order is fast becoming a central problem of global politics. Countries that need oil are clawing at each other to lock up scarce supplies, and are willing to deal with any government, no matter how unsavory, to do it.»

La spéculation sur le prix du pétrole est un exercice courant d’une prospective comptable souvent considérée comme aléatoire et très souvent dénoncée comme facile. Nénmoins, certaines de ces prévisions permettent d'avoir une idée de l'évolution de notre perception de la chose, car la prospective est aussi en partie une affaire de perception. Voici deux exemples de prospectives récentes qui, en leurs temps, il y a un ou deux ans, furent considérées comme extrêmement audacieuses, si pas plus. A la lumière des événements actuels, l’appréciation pourrait éventuellement changer.

• Le 20 avril 2005, le site Aljazeera.Net présentait une estimation de deux experts français, envisageant le baril de pétrole à $380 pour 2015. «A report prepared by energy economists at the French investment bank Ixis-CIB has warned crude oil prices could touch $380 a barrel by 2015. Analysts Patrick Artus and Moncef Kaabi said in the next 10 years demand for oil will outstrip supply by around 8 million barrels per day (mbpd). “If one takes into account the level of previous oil shocks such as in the 1970's, we don't think a price level of $380 per barrel is out of the question,” they said.»

• Le 15 février 2006, le site russe Regnum annonçait une estimation de $200 par baril si la guerre avec l’Iran éclatait: «If war begins in Iran, oil price can increase up to $200 per barrel. Head of the National Security Foundation and Center for Asian Studies, Peter Brooks declared it during a round table in Washington. Answering a question, to what extent the situation of beginning military actions with US participation in Iran is real, Brooks said, it could not be excluded but, at first, the existing problem should be resolved at negotiating table. At the same time Brooks added, military actions in Iran will differ from Iraqi ones, because the Iranian army is better trained and armed, reports RSN.»

Mis en ligne le 7 novembre 2007 à 17H37