Que pense l’establishment modéré US de la catastrophe irakienne?

On peut admettre que Anthony H. Cordesman (professeur de stratégie au CSIS de Georgetown University) représente une opinion qui traduit le sentiment de la tendance modérée (il y en a encore une) de la communauté des experts dans l’establishment washingtonien. Il est par conséquent intéressant de lire ce qu’il dit des perspectives de la situation en Irak, et qu’on peut lire dans un article qu’il publie sur le site World Peace Herald (UPI) le 2 juin. Cet article est un condensé de son dernier rapport : « Winning the Long War in Iraq: What the U.S. Can and Cannot Do ».

Les conseils de Cordesman demandent deux choses: du courage politique, ce qui est une chose rare dans une année électorale, et la volonté de sortir de l’univers fantasmagorique où se meut aujourd’hui la direction américaniste. Voici les conseils de Cordesman, à qui nous souhaitons bonne chance :

« The United States may well be able to reduce its troop presence in Iraq, and it may even be forced to leave and seek to influence Iraq from the outside. It cannot, however, ''exit'' in any meaningful sense. One way or another, it must try to make Iraq succeed for years, if not a decade, to come. It also cannot abandon Iraq without appearing to be defeated by Islamic extremism and asymmetric methods of war, and without being seen as abandoning some 28 million people it pledged to rescue from tyranny. The U.S. bull is seen throughout the world as having broken the china shop it claimed to rescue. It must now live with the political and strategic consequences.

» It is time for the Bush administration to stop trying to spin the war in Iraq into images of turning points and success and address the real issues. Leadership must consist of honest, frank admissions of risk and cost, and of plans that are based on half a decade, and not the false image of easy ways out. At this point in time, political manipulators and “spin artists” like Karl Rove are becoming a threat that unconsciously supports the Iraqi insurgents. They breed distrust and anger and preach to a steadily diminishing minority of the “converted.”

» The U.S. Congress needs the same honesty. Republican members need to face the same realities as the Bush administration, and Democratic members need to stop talking about impossible strategies and easy exits, as if Iraq's fate somehow did not have strategic importance. Congress has been no more honest as a body than the Bush administration, and only a few members have truly sought bipartisan solutions that will serve the national interest. Partisan spin and opportunism is as much a threat to the United States as spin within the administration. Like President George W. Bush, Congress is more of a threat than the insurgency.

» The U.S. military and senior U.S. officials also need to stop “cheerleading” and spinning the facts on the ground. The leaders must present the real facts and options, honestly address the risks, present a strategy for long-term involvement, and provide metrics that give an honest picture of what is happening, good and bad. Americans need to see that there are practical plans; they need to be able to trust what senior military and civilian officials say; and they need to see a case for patience that builds credibility and trust. There is a reason polls show a growing lack of confidence and support. The U.S. government simply has failed to earn it.

» U.S. officials reporting on Iraq should recognize that the U.S. Embassy in Iraq, and U.S. intelligence and military officers, see many of the same problems in Iraq as the media. No one is hiding the “good news.” Put simply, not much progress has been made, and it was never reasonable to assume progress could be quick and easy.

» Instead of playing games with numbers and definitions, U.S. officials should prepare the American people and Congress for years of effort. They should communicate in ways that build enduring trust by honestly stating the problems and by providing meaningful metrics of success and failure.

» U.S. leadership should reassure Iraqis and the rest of the world that the United States is addressing Iraq in real world terms, and it should put indirect pressure on Iraqis to lead, act, and succeed by highlighting their successes and failures. »

Mis en ligne le 4 juin 2006 à 13H38