Réflexions sur les restes de l’empire

Un thème désormais largement exploité au Moyen-Orient, c’est celui du déclin de l’hégémonie US dans la région. On a déjà vu ce thème le 5 janvier et il est aujourd’hui particulièrement présent, à l’occasion du voyage de Bush au Moyen-Orient.

Un texte mis en ligne aujourd’hui sur antiwar.com apporte des précisions supplémentaires, essentiellement à partir de déclarations d’intellectuels, d’universitaires et d’hommes politiques de divers pays arabes. Ce texte est intéressant à lire également à la lumière de ce que nous dit Jim Lobe à propos de l’“incident du Golfe Persique”. On est alors plus incliné à envisager sa thèse selon laquelle l’U.S. Navy attendrait des dirigeants arabes du Golfe qu’ils fassent pression sur Bush pour que celui-ci autorise la signature d’un accord de “bon voisinage naval” entre l’U.S. Navy et la marine iranienne. (Ce point est d’autant plus à envisager d’autre part que l’amiral Fallon, le commandant de Central Command et adversaire n°1 d’un conflit avec l’Iran, a établi des liens très serrés avec les dirigeants arabes du Golfe.)

«Recent months have witnessed several notable political reorientations in the Middle East, involving Iran, the Gulf states, Egypt and Lebanon. Several experts say the changes reflect a shift in Washington's regional strategy following recent US policy setbacks.

»“US policies in the region are either in retreat or undergoing reexamination,” Ayman Abelaziz Salaama, international law professor at Cairo University told IPS. “Washington's project for a new Middle East – launched in 2001 with the aim of redrawing the region to suit US interests – has failed.”

(…)

»According to [Abdel-Halim Kandil, political analyst and former editor-in-chief of Libanese opposition weekly al-Karama] Kandil, the US failure to win decisively in Iraq has forced Arab capitals to reassess the vaunted US military might. “Given the situation in Iraq, the Arab regimes now realize that US power isn't absolute – and can even be resisted,” he said.

»Military strategy aside, local observers also point to Washington's shattered credibility as an arbitrator in the Israel-Palestine conflict, particularly after the US-sponsored Annapolis summit in November.

»Ostensibly held to restart the moribund Arab-Israeli peace process, the event was attended by representatives from Israel, the Ramallah-based Palestinian Authority and 16 Arab nations. But while the conference was heavy on Tel Aviv's security concerns, longstanding Arab demands – chief among them the establishment of a Palestinian state – were conspicuously absent.

»“The Arabs went to Annapolis despite serious reservations, based on Washington's promises that Israel would show flexibility,” said Kandil. “But the US totally failed to deliver, embarrassing the Arab regimes in front of their respective publics.”

»[Essam al-Arian, a leading member of Egypt's Muslim Brotherhood opposition movement,] echoed this theme, saying, “Even Arab governments allied with the US were deeply embarrassed by the lack of results.”

»Many Arab commentators also point to the US failure to advance the twin causes of democracy and human rights in the region – both of which had been major components of Washington's post-9/11 vision for a “New Middle East.”

»“The US can't call for democracy and human rights while simultaneously committing war crimes in Iraq and Afghanistan,” said Salaama. “America was once seen as a champion of freedom – now it's perceived as a human rights violator.”

»According to Kandil, these accumulated US failures – both military and moral – have led the region's capitals to reexamine their priorities.

»“Until now, the Arab regimes have blindly followed the US, thinking they needed it to keep them in power,” he said. “But recent development are prompting them to reassesses this assumption.

»“The era of US hegemony is ending,” Kandil added. “And a new era of cooperation between regional actors – looking for new means to achieve their ends – has begun.”»

Mis en ligne le 12 janvier 2008 à 12H20