Réponse du berger à la bergère

Depuis trois mois, les analystes européens fulminent contre la dépendance européenne du gaz russe et intiment à la Russie le conseil appuyé de se soumettre aux lois transparentes et vertueuses du marché libre. Après divers bras d’honneur en guise de réponse, Poutine passent aux choses sérieuses.

Les accords gaziers sino-russe qui viennent d’être signés à Pékin, en marge de la visite de Poutine en Chine, éclairent la nouvelle orientation stratégique russe : l’exportation d’énergie vers l’Est, vers l’énorme Chine. Le but de la Russie est, dans tous les cas, de ne pas être trop dépendant de l’Europe pour les exportations d’énergie. La Russie renverse à son avantage, au nom du même principe de l’indépendance mais apprécié dans un sens inverse, l’acte d’accusation européen monté contre elle. Elle renforce un partenariat stratégique avec une puissance qui, au contraire de l’Europe, met ses actes en accord avec ses conceptions et ses intérêts, notamment dans ses rapports avec les USA. Une telle réorientation de la stratégie russe, tout en ne rompant pas avec l’Europe, place la Russie en position de force vis-à-vis de cette même Europe dont le poids politique ne cesse de décliner à mesure de la montée de sa rhétorique prétentieuse et donneuse de leçon et de son alignement sur la politique américaniste.

Voici quelques extraits d’une analyse de l’Agence Novosti :

« Russian natural gas supplies to China will help Russia end its dependence on European markets, several prominent political scientists said Tuesday after the two countries' energy giants signed a memorandum. Alexei Miller, the chief executive of Russian energy giant Gazprom, and China National Petroleum Corporation head Chen Gang put pen to paper in Beijing, where President Vladimir Putin had earlier arrived on a two-day visit.

» Gas exports to China will come from West Siberia during the first stage of the project to build a gas pipeline system to meet the energy-consuming giant's needs and later from East Siberia, with exports to amount to 30-40 billion cu m of gas a year at each stage. A source in the Russian delegation traveling with Putin said a $10-billion gas pipeline to China could be commissioned in 2011.

(...)

» [Konstantin Simonov, director of the Center for Current Politics in Russia,] said that Russia should focus on east-bound supplies, since Europe was increasingly discussing alternative sources of natural gas deliveries along alternative energy sources, including nuclear power. “They are blackmailing us by talking about alternative projects, even though Europe clearly does not have other options given a decline in gas output [in Europe]”. He said Russia was committed to ensure gas supplies to European consumers, but should respond to European pressure and plans to deter Russia's growing presence on local gas markets by showing that it had other options as well. (...)

» Valery Nesterov, an analyst with the Troika-Dialog investment company, said under national energy strategy adopted in 2003, Russia was seeking to diversify its oil and gas exports. “The point is that Russia is too dependent on the European market, both in terms of oil and natural gas exports,” he said. According to the analyst, diversification will bring the country new markets, on the one hand, and better positions in talks with foreign partners, on the other. “This is particularly important in light of the campaign conducted in some European countries to diversify energy imports,” Nesterov added.

» He highlighted the past winter's problems with Ukraine during a bitter dispute over natural gas prices. Russia's neighbor siphoned off gas bound for Europe, which made some countries contemplate reducing their dependence on Russian supplies.

» However, Gazprom, Russia's monopoly in the sector, had let it be known that consumers depended on Russia's willingness to sell its gas as much as Russia depended on Europe's demand for its supplies, he said. Russia can hint, he continued, that it will offer gas to the energy-hungry Chinese market in the event of a decline in European purchases of Russian gas, which is hardly possible. “That, I think, is the point of this decision. Exporting 20-30 billion cubic meters of gas to China is quite realistic. But the figure could be higher, and Gazprom should have stronger competitive positions,” the analyst said.

» At the same time, Nesterov denied that the signing of the memorandum might lead to a deterioration in Russia's relations with Europe. “If any problems happen, responsibility rests with transit states and not Gazprom. Gazprom, on the contrary, is seeking to keep the 25-26% share of the European market [in its supplies] unchanged,” he added. »

Mis en ligne le 22 mars 2006 à 14H53