Un message d’Irak

Un message d’Irak

11 avril 2004 — Nous publions ce document qui nous paraît particulièrement intéressant, en le renvoyant au lien initial du site qui l’a publié, “Defense & National Interest”, qui a déjà montré son intérêt à diverses reprises. Le document nous paraît très révélateur de la situation en Irak, notamment en le plaçant en perspective, avec les possibilités de développement dans les semaines qui viennent. (Il est assez rare aujourd’hui que des commentateurs se risquent à des prévisions sur les prolongements de la situation actuelle.)

Il s’agit d’un message électronique parvenu au site “D&NI”, émanant d’une personne employée dans une société de gardiennage en Irak, avec une carrière dans le renseignement et la lutte anti-terroriste. Les conditions présentées autour de ce message ne donnent aucune garantie d’authenticité mais la cohérence du texte, la pertinence des remarques nous engagent à le considérer comme une référence intéressante et sérieuse. (De toutes les façons, les sources officielles et autres des grands médias, sources dites “sérieuses”, dont on devrait attendre qu’elles donnent toute la “garantie d’authenticité” possible, se sont montrées si manipulées, si fausses, si délibérément trompeuses, que notre correspondant anonyme ne peut en aucune façon l’être plus. C’est déjà un signe très encourageant et on peut lui faire une confiance plus grande qu’au porte-parole du Pentagone.)

Signalons, pour ce qui concerne la prospective de la situation, que notre interlocuteur anonyme prévoit notamment :

• Une relative accalmie dans les jours, voire dans la semaine qui suit, — mais bien “une accalmie”, nullement la fin du mouvement de révolte. Cette accalmie doit permettre à chacun de reprendre des forces. (Le cessez-le-feu à Fallujah semble devoir être un signe puissant de cette accalmie.)

• Il y aura ensuite une nouvelle explosion, avec des guérilleros ayant beaucoup appris des récents combats. (« [Y]ou can be pretty sure the second wave of violence is going to come and it will be equally, if not more, dramatic »)

• L’auteur du message électronique est extrêmement pessimiste. Pour lui, la comparaison avec le Viet-nâm ne tient pas, car la situation en Irak devrait être beaucoup plus difficile pour les Américains. L’avenir lui paraît très sombre : « I refer you to Israel's humiliating defeat in Southern Lebanon by Hezbollah's armed resistance for a reference to our potential future. »

Le message était accompagné de la Contextual Note suivante, signée Chuck Spinney : « The following email message was forwarded to me by a friend. It is from a man who spent a career in US military intelligence specializing in counter-terrorism and is now in Iraq working as a contractor providing security for companies and NGOs. I do not know the author of this email and can not vouch for its accuracy, but it is worth studying and filing for future reference. »

E-mail from Iraq

The fighting two nights ago was loud and widespread throughout the northern and northwestern parts of Baghdad ... areas such as Yarmouk and Sadr City had almost continuous gunfights and rocket attacks.

When we heard US forces using the main gun on M-1 tanks at 1 AM we knew it was serious insurgency at hand.

The night is no longer the refuge and domain of the Americans. I have to tell you although the wide open areas of Iraq give a false sense of security. Even though much of this is unseen to most people the situation has gone from bad to really bad to unbelievably bad! Westerners are getting hit everywhere.

Security companies escorting CPA, themselves and other Westerners are now on the menu for all the armed resistance groups. There was a report of a massive ambush by one security firm that tried to drive in from Amman. Reports have 25-40 gunmen opening up on them. They lost all of their vehicles and had to be given a mercy lift by a passing Iraqi minivan. Several other firms lost western security personnel killed this week in drive-by ambushes and even a siege by the Sadr Militia.

Several NGOs, security firms and military bases were literally under siege for days in Kut, Nasiriyah and Baghdad.

The boldness and sophistication of the attacks is staggering and it is clear that every one of the resistance fighters and Islamic militiamen have taken heart at the ease of inflicting damage on the Westerners. The abductions of the Japanese hostages is a sign that we have entered a new phase of bad as abduction requires a permissive environment for the hostage taker.

I refer to this entire mess as the second Intifada of Iraq. The first Intifida was last August in Fallujah when US soldiers killed 15-17 Iraqis and Fallujah fell into revolt. Vehicles are being hit where they are easiest to find and the security firms who are here to protect the Westerners are taking casualties because the US Army and Marines are literally stretched thin throughout the country and quite over their own capacity to stop the violence.

The resistance's combat operational center of mass is and will continue moving from known mass resistance organizations (such as uniformed Badr Brigade) to small leaderless or autonomous teams or supporters who are now deciding to do what they please to the first target available. Those targets are easy ... Westerners. Any and all. This burst of energy won't last long though.

I suspect we will have a cool down period in the next few days or within a week, but it will be simply to ''re-arm and re-fuel for re-strike and re-venge.''

A true sustained explosion of violence has yet to be coordinated by the myriad of resistance teams, but as the independent or semi-centralized resistance groups form, choose leadership, and communicate at the internet cafes, you can be pretty sure the second wave of violence is going to come and it will be equally, if not more, dramatic. This time it won't be men in black uniforms, they have learned that lesson in Najaf ... They will shift to urban terrorism and un-uniformed attacks. God forbid if Sadr is killed or captured ... then we have an entire second front that won't give up until we leave.

General Kimmet is wrong if he thinks that he will destroy the Badr brigade or Sadr Army as a military organization because there isn't really one ... he will disperse them into small, highly armed teams of friends and ... voila! Al Qaeda-Iraq or Hezbollah-Iraq will be born in numbers we will not be able to control.

Since the ICDC [the Iraqi Civil Defense Corps] seem to have run off and joined the opposition in Nasiriyah, it may reflect the true loyalties of the new Iraqi army and Police. No one is going to cross their family, tribe or religious community for the Americans.

The correct answer is to back off, leave Sadr alone and start to throw lots of money into jobs projects and utilities for the south before this summer's electricity and gas shortages ... will that work? Probably not. But we have just antagonized the core of the Shiite resistance and putting them to work is better than letting them fight us 24/7.

General Sanchez is right about one thing ... this is not Vietnam ... Oh no, its not that easy. I refer you to Israel's humiliating defeat in Southern Lebanon by Hezbollah's armed resistance for a reference to our potential future.

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