Un rapport de plus sur la gravité de la crise climatique, “la mère de toutes les crises”, la plus grave possible…

Chaque jour amène désormais ses nouvelles alarmantes sur la crise climatique. En quelques mois, la crise climatique s’est imposée comme un facteur fondamental des relations internationales, des préoccupations des dirigeants, un facteur fondamental de l’esprit de crise qui parcourt notre temps, — et, bien sûr, une crise qui est sans le moindre doute “la mère de toutes les crises”…

Aujourd’hui, c’est The Observer qui publie un article sur un rapport dont il a obtenu une copie, le quatrième rapport de l’Intergovernemental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), un des groupes officiels mis en place par la “communauté internationale” pour suivre l’évolution de la crise climatique. Il s’agit donc de l’évaluation internationale la plus officielle. Ses observations, appréciations, évaluations et conclusions sont absolument alarmantes. Toutes les tendances continuent à se confirmer dans le même sens pour définir cette crise : plus rapide, plus grave et complètement de la main de l’homme pour ces facteurs (« And the cause is clear, say the authors: “It is very likely that [man-made] greenhouse gas increases caused most of the average temperature increases since the mid-20th century,” says the report.»)

Quelques-unes des remarques introductives pour nous confirmer ces observations sans grande originalité désormais. Tout cela ne fera que confirmer et accélérer la déstabilisation désormais en cours des gouvernements et des politiques.

»A draft copy of the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, obtained by The Observer, shows the frequency of devastating storms — like the ones that battered Britain last week — will increase dramatically. Sea levels will rise over the century by around half a metre; snow will disappear from all but the highest mountains; deserts will spread; oceans become acidic, leading to the destruction of coral reefs and atolls; and deadly heatwaves will become more prevalent.

»The impact will be catastrophic, forcing hundreds of millions of people to flee their devastated homelands, particularly in tropical, low-lying areas, while creating waves of immigrants whose movements will strain the economies of even the most affluent countries.

»“The really chilling thing about the IPCC report is that it is the work of several thousand climate experts who have widely differing views about how greenhouse gases will have their effect. Some think they will have a major impact, others a lesser role. Each paragraph of this report was therefore argued over and scrutinised intensely. Only points that were considered indisputable survived this process. This is a very conservative document — that's what makes it so scary,” said one senior UK climate expert.

»Climate concerns are likely to dominate international politics next month. President Bush is to make the issue a part of his state of the union address on Wednesday while the IPCC report's final version is set for release on 2 February in a set of global news conferences.

»Although the final wording of the report is still being worked on, the draft indicates that scientists now have their clearest idea so far about future climate changes, as well as about recent events. It points out that:

»• 12 of the past 13 years were the warmest since records began;· ocean temperatures have risen at least three kilometres beneath the surface;

»• glaciers, snow cover and permafrost have decreased in both hemispheres;

»• sea levels are rising at the rate of almost 2mm a year;

»• cold days, nights and frost have become rarer while hot days, hot nights and heatwaves have become more frequent.

(…)

»To date, these changes have caused global temperatures to rise by 0.6C. The most likely outcome of continuing rises in greenhouses gases will be to make the planet a further 3C hotter by 2100, although the report acknowledges that rises of 4.5C to 5C could be experienced. Ice-cap melting, rises in sea levels, flooding, cyclones and storms will be an inevitable consequence.»

Mis en ligne le 21 janvier 2007 à 04H42