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931On doit signaler l’analyse abondante et très fournie de l’analyste indépendant Josh Mull, sur Huffington.Post le 18 juin 2010, sur ce que Mull lui-même identifie comme “la désintégration” de la guerre en Afghanistan, avec sa prévision que le Congrès ne votera peut-être pas les crédits de la guerre, que les alliés des USA commencent à se débander, que la stratégie McChrystal est un échec… Egalement, avec des précisions sur Karzaï qui, selon Mull, n’est pas en train de négocier avec les talibans mais a d’ores et déjà signé un accord avec eux, avec le soutien du Pakistan et prépare d’ores et déjà l’après-guerre, après le départ des forces de l’OTAN.
«The war in Afghanistan is disintegrating before our very eyes. Our counterinsurgency strategy is broken, and the Pentagon knows it. The so-called “emergency” funding requested months ago by the Obama administration now seems destined to die a slow, bureaucratic death in congress due to overwhelming pressure by citizens. Our allies in NATO have either reached their peak of military involvement, as with the UK, or have already begun to dismantle their troop presence, as with Canada and so many others. Other countries in the region are already vying for power after the US leaves, even as the Pentagon insists its July 2011 withdrawal date will only be the “beginning of a process.”
»But what about Afghanistan itself? What about President Hamid Karzai, our ally and head of the “Host Nation"” government? The theory put forward by the pundit class is usually some variation of the "bloodbath" theme. That is, our allies in Kabul like Karzai would be overrun and annihilated by the Taliban. This appears to be more media myth-making, however, as we see from Karzai's political maneuvering that not only is he threatening to join the Taliban, but he may have already done just that.»
Après un long développement sur la complexité des situations intérieures, Mull conclut sur les perspectives qu’il juge désormais irréversibles, sinon déjà en marche : «…That is what will become of Afghanistan when then US withdrawal is over: A Taliban-Karzai coalition government, and a client state for Pakistan.
»It's worth noting, however, that this is not a reasoning for more war in Afghanistan. This maneuvering is happening now, in the middle of a massive US escalation. Our military involvement does nothing but exacerbate these effects on Afghanistan. Our violent war against the Taliban legitimizes them as freedom fighters. Our support of the crooked Karzai regime gives him credibility to run a sovereign state, as well as assuming all of the economic responsibilities that entails. And our support for Pakistan's military dictatorship, at the expense of their democratically elected civilian government, enables the Pakistani national security strategy of perpetual war against India, whether through terrorism, trade, or conventional means. […]
»As domestic pressure finally chokes off support for the war in Washington, it's helpful to keep a close eye on these machinations by Karzai and the Taliban. Supporters of the war in the US will make claims about an impending bloodbath, but clearly Karzai's regime will survive our absence. War supporters will also claim that these problems which were created by our war can only be fixed by...more war. It's simply not true…»
Sur le même Huffington.post, on fait une place importante, le 20 juin 2010, à des déclarations de Karzaï selon lesquelles il favorisera le Japon comme principal investisseur pour l’exploitation des richesses minières qu’un récent document du Pentagone vient de (re)mettre d’actualité. Cette prise de position confirme également l’attitude de plus en plus indépendante de Karzaï…
«During an appearance at Japan Institute for International Affairs, Karzai focused on his country's mineral deposits. He Pointed to Japan's status as Afghanistan's second-biggest donor, and reasoned that Japan should enjoy special access to Afghan resources with estimated values that range from $1-3 trillion dollars.
» “Morally, Afghanistan should give access as a priority to those countries that have helped Afghanistan massively in the past few years,” Karzai told the institute. “What . . . we have to reciprocate with is this opportunity of mineral resources, that we must return at the goodwill of the Japanese people by giving Japan priority to come and explore and extract,” Karzai said.
»Looking to the future, Karzai echoed an internal Pentagon memo and said that the mining will define Afghanistan, “Whereas Saudi Arabia is the oil capital of the world, Afghanistan will be the lithium capital of the world.... And Japan is welcome to participate in the lithium exploration in Afghanistan.”»
(Voir aussi notre Bloc-Notes de ce 21 juin 2010.)
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