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Résumons la situation:
1) La crise est gérée par “l’Elite” auto-proclamée même qui l’a provoquée,
2) Cette “Elite”, entièrement satisfaite du “statu quo ante”, dresse un barrage systématique à toute bonne volonté de réforme venant des outsiders,
3) On organise maintenant un sommet du G20 où les mêmes décideront, non comment réformer le système, mais comment faire croire au commun des mortels que l’on change tout… Sans rien changer.
Ces gens, confits dans leur pouvoir, n’ont apparement plus de contact avec la réalité depuis longtemps.
Comment ne voient-ils pas qu’il y a eu un empire romain, un empire ottoman, un empire espagnol, un empire français, un empire anglo-saxon?
Comment ne voient-ils pas que l’empire anglo-saxon des dernières décennies croule à présent sous le poids de sa propre médiocrité, de la négation des valeurs même qu’il proclame?
Comment ne voient-ils pas que maintenant il faut que tout change pour que rien ne change?

Jusqu’ici je m’en tenais au Chiffres du leap http://www.leap2020.eu , apparemment la situation a pas mal evolue sur l’année si j’en crois les chiffres donnés sur ce site :
http://www.treas.gov/tic/mfh.txt

La chine serait passe devant le japon en multipliant pratiquement par 2 sa detention de la dette americaine sur une seule année .

Pour ce qui est de la france les chiffres sont un peu surprenant :de janvier a Avril notre part de la dette americaine declinait pour etre proche de 0 , puis en remonte a 21 milliards de dollars en aout , puis c’est la crise , on panique et on se debarasse de 5 milliards pour redescendre a 16 .

Les chinois veulent avoir des garanties sur leur part de la dette :
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/c2770bf0-1002-11de-a8ae-0000779fd2ac.html

ca prevoit des lendemains difficile tout ca

by “Mish” Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2009/03/g-20-summit-complete-waste-of-money.html

1. G-20 Communiqué : “... We commit to fight all forms of protectionism and maintain open trade and investment. “
—Are we supposed to believe this? Why? There have been so many consecutive failures in trade talks that I have lost count.

2. G-20 Communiqué : ” Our key priority now is to restore lending by tackling, where needed, problems in the financial system head on, through continued liquidity support, bank recapitalisation and dealing with impaired assets, through a common framework. “
—Hallelujah. The key priority is to restore lending when reckless lending is what got us into this mess.

G-20 Communiqué : There are six more statements most of which amount to nothing more than an agreement to agree.

7. G-20 Communiqué : ” We have also agreed to: regulatory oversight, including registration, of all Credit Rating Agencies whose ratings are used for regulatory purposes, and compliance with the International Organisation of Securities Commissions (IOSCO) code; full transparency of exposures to off-balance sheet vehicles; the need for improvements in accounting standards, including for provisioning and valuation uncertainty; greater standardisation and resilience of credit derivatives markets; the FSF’s sound practice principles for compensation; and the relevant international bodies identify non-cooperative jurisdictions and to develop a tool box of effective counter measure. “
—Wonderful. They agreed to register credit rating agencies. Wow. That’s sure going to help.
Notice too the statement regarding full transparency to off-balance sheet vehicles. Excuse me for asking but how about a timeline as to when? Then again, why should there be off-balance sheet entities at all?

G-20 Communiqué : please check out that last statement. ” We have also agreed to the relevant international bodies identify non-cooperative jurisdictions and to develop a tool box of effective counter measure. “
—That’s not even a sentence but the idea seems to be to “develop a toolbox to identify non-cooperative jurisdictions” whatever the hell that means.

Extrait de http://www.itulip.com/forums/showthread.php?p=83348#post83348

The most likely trigger is a Tax Receipt Epiphany that leads to a Fiscal Deficit Shock and sudden loss of confidence in US sovereign credit quality.

1. Tax receipts will be dramatically lower than current estimates and expectations (Timing: Late April or early May?)

2. Demands on the Federal budget are higher than currently expected   (Timing: Ongoing)
- extension of lender of last resort operations to finance current credit market challenges
- inclusion of new rescue operations : credit card and insurance companies, public pensions, state and local government.

3. Supply crash meets money supply boom, resulting in rising inflation.  (Timing: Q4 2009 or Q1 2010?)
- Supply crash : raw materials, without credit production has slowed dramatically. Without trade credit shipping and trade have slowed dramatically. In terms of finished goods, the retail trade industry is contracting quickly.
- Money supply boom : starting in 1975, government efforts to reflate the economy by increasing the money supply ran head long
- Inflation starting with consumer prices may have already begun.

4. China will not be able to continue to purchase US Treasury bonds.  (Timing: Q3 or Q4 2009?)
The situation will be similar to that which the US and UK found themselves in 1930, unable to continue to make payments that maintained capital inflows that the German economy depended on to finance its fiscal and current account imbalances: the German economy collapsed in a Sudden Stop event in 1931.
The timing of this event is very difficult because it is political; at what point does the cost of buying Treasuries outweigh the cost of not buying them? We should see some early signs : investors hiding out in dollar inflation hedges like commodities and precious metals, the coincidence of falling Treasury yields and rising gold prices.

Rappel : Road to Ruin: Final stretch. http://www.itulip.com/forums/showthread.php?p=78579#post78579
The credit crunch may only be in its early stages and a bigger contraction in lending in coming months could have “serious implications” for the U.S. economy, Standard & Poor’s Rating Services said Friday.

... we side with Soros on this, and Volcker :
we are witnessing a global systemic breakup, the end of the road we got onto in 1971.
We passed the last exit in 2001, the last chance to adopt a strategy to shift to a production and savings based economy through a series of steps negotiated with trade partners.
Instead we increased the debt further through a property bubble financed with fraudulent structure credit products.

The road ends when the US cannot finance its debts. The end of the road is near.

Ce monde serieux et responsable me fait de plus en plus rire ,plus il s’eclate plus je m’eclate quand on assiste a cet apocalypse(revelation) du conformisme je suis rassure, tant de diplome et d’etudes pour en arriver la.ISRAEL a le prix d’excellence comme d’habitude;LE PLUS FORT % DE DIPLOMES UNIVERSITAIRES AU MONDE(decidement arme jusqu’au cerveau).
De quel connaissance s’agit il? Surement des CON(OMP)TES d’ANDERSEN,de la psychologie de l’usure (le temps c’est de l’argent)ou du sexe des anges que d’ignorance savantes une vraie cabale.IL est beau de voire tout se beau monde se dechirer.Encore merci Mr Grasset ET LES CONTRIBUTEURS de nous dissecter ce monstrueux panier de crabes,une petite histoire pour finir"des gens gemissaient ecrase par une armoire et dans celle ci il y avait des livres et que disait ces livres la raison de l’armoire est toujours la meilleure”